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The economic keys of the week (October 20 – 24): inflation and EU-Canada trade tensions

The economic keys of the week (October 20 - 24): inflation and EU-Canada trade tensions

This week they were announced data of inflation in Mexico and the United States. In Mexico, the data for the first fortnight corresponding to the National Consumer Price Index was released (INPC).

While in the United States, the Department of Labor released its consumer price index for the month of September.

In Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) also disclosed the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) which in September once again registered weak growth with an expansion of 0.1 percent.

We share with you what were the key economic data that were released during the third week of October, so that you can enjoy the weekend well informed.

Inflation in Mexico slowed to 3.63% annually

He National Consumer Price Index (INPC) reported a biweekly advance of 0.28% in the first half of October, placing annual inflation at 3.63 percent.

According to data released this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), it slowed down in the first fortnight of the month, after four consecutive fortnights of accelerations.

The services category was the one that had the greatest impact on consumers’ pockets and registered a price increase of 4.42% in annual comparison, while merchandise became more expensive by 4.06 percent.

The inflation underlyingwhich eliminates the goods and services with the most volatile prices from its calculation, stood at 4.24%, above general inflation, but with a lower record than the 4.30% of the previous month.

In the first half of October, non-core inflation stood at 1.58 percent.

Within it, the price of agricultural products increased by 1.06% annually, while energy prices and rates authorized by the government rose 1.99 percent.

The products that registered drops were: Egg (-2.13%), Chicken (-0.95%), Tomato (-3.34%), Potato and other tubers (-4.93%), Green tomato (-6.95%), Avocado (-5.91%), Orange (-6.30%), Bananas -2.72%), Serrano chili (-4.18%), and lemon (-4.50%).

Inflation in the US rebounds to 3% in September

The consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose to 3% at the end of September, from the 2.9% recorded in August, the Department of Labor reported.

The increase in consumer prices moderated to 0.3% compared to 0.4% the previous month, despite an increase in energy prices.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, moderated during September to 0.2%, and over the year to 3% (compared to 3.1% the previous month).

The Department of Labor was scheduled to publish its index on September 15, but the US government shutdown caused a postponement of its release.

The White House announced Friday that due to the government shutdown, there will “probably” be no inflation report in October.

ECLAC raises growth forecasts for Mexico and Latin America

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) raised its growth forecasts for the Latin American economy to 2.4% this year and 2.3% next, amid a regional panorama marked by low investment and productivity, undynamic labor markets and high levels of inequality.

ECLAC revised upwards for the second time the 2.2% growth forecast projected in August.

The organization raised the projections for Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela, among others. For the Mexican economy, ECLAC raised its growth estimate to 0.6 percent.

For Chile it estimated an expansion of 2.6%, for Colombia 2.5%, Peru 3.2% and for Brazil 2.5 percent.

Mexican economy would end 2 months of weak growth with an expansion of 0.1% in September: IOAE

He Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) registered an expansion of just 0.1% in September in monthly comparison, reported the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

With this data, the IOAE would repeat the dynamism of August, where a growth of just 0.1 percent is also estimated.

The economy will link two months of expansion, after a 0.9 percent drop in July.

How did the markets close?

Exchange rate:

He exchange rate It ended the day at the level of 18.4411 units per dollar. Against a record of 18.3952 units yesterday with data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the movement meant a drop of 4.59 cents for the peso, equivalent to 0.25 percent.

The price of the dollar moved in a range between a maximum of 18.4641 units and a minimum level of 18.3434. The Dollar Index (DXY), of the Intercontinental Exchange, which compares the US currency with a basket of six pairs, fell -0.03% to 98.91 points.

BMV and Biva

He benchmark stock index S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.60% to 61,145.49 points, in a market also with its sights set on the quarterly results season.

The securities of the mining company Industrias Peñoles led the declines, with -3.86% to 734.25 pesos, followed by those of the telecommunications firm Megacable, which subtracted -3.73% to 52.97 pesos.

Wall Street:

The three main Wall Street indices closed with profits negotiations this Friday. Lower-than-expected inflation data and encouraging corporate results pushed benchmarks to new all-time highs.

He Dow Jones Industrial Averagemade up of the shares of 30 giants, gained 1.01% to 47,207.12 points, while the S&P 500, of the most valuable companies, advanced 0.79% to 6,791.69 points. He Nasdaq Composite gained 1.15% to 23,204.87.

In weekly performances, all three major indices posted weekly gains. The Dow Jones rose 2.93% and gained 10.66% for the year; the S&P 500 advanced 2.72% and gains 15.05% this year; the Nasdaq Composite rose 3.18% and gains 19.59% this year.

To have on the radar

Trump breaks off trade negotiations with Canada

US President Donald Trump cut off trade negotiations with Canada abruptlyfurious over an advertising campaign in the neighboring country against increased tariffs, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney tried to calm the waters.

The announcement represented a change of sudden stance of the Republican president after a cordial meeting on October 7 at the White House with the Canadian prime minister.

Trump expressed anger on his social network Truth Social after he called a “fake” ad that he said misquoted former US President Ronald Reagan talking about tariff policy.

According to Trump, the advertisement, produced by the Canadian province of Ontario and which must be broadcast on American networks, seeks to “interfere in the decision of the United States Supreme Court,” which has to rule on its extensive global tariffs.

On Friday morning he lashed out again at his neighbor in a series of vehement messages on his social media in which he stated that “Canada cheated and got caught.”

The Premier of Ontario, Doug Fordsaid on

Ford asked his advisors to keep the ad running during this weekend’s first two games of baseball’s World Series, in which a Canadian team, the Toronto Blue Jays, faces the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Speaking ahead of his trip to Asia this Friday, Carney did not directly mention Trump’s change in stance, but said bilateral talks had shown progress. “We are ready to resume that progress (…) when Americans are ready,” he added.

Economic briefs:

Japan received its new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who promised to bring her country’s inflation to the 2% target.

In the month of September, inflation in Japan accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year.

China grew at its own pace slowest in a year in the third quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the July-September quarter grew 4.8% annually, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which represents a decrease compared to 5.2% in the previous three months. It represented the slowest growth since the same quarter last year, when GDP grew 4.6 percent.

(With information from Belén Saldívar, José Antonio Rivera, Roberto Morales, Reuters and AFP)



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