The dollar fell slightly this Friday in the local exchange market and closed the week practically unchanged. The average traded was $43.02, while the last trade was agreed to $43, according to Bevsa. The US currency accumulates a decrease of 3.75% since the beginning of the year.
The amount of foreign currency operated this Friday was US$ 8 million, without any intervention from the Central Bank (BCU) as in recent weeks. On the BROU public board, the coin was at $41.80 for purchase and $44.20 for sale.
The president of the BCU, Diego Labat, reiterated this Thursday that the monetary authority has intervened when the dollar “it goes out of its fundamentals or in some specific episode”, but that the best way, from his point of view, is “try to let the dollar float as much as possible”, as he told the program In perspective by radioworld.
The head of the monetary authority added that the fall of the dollar is passing “throughout the region” as the flip side of the appreciation of raw materials and “when these things happen that are natural, no intervention is necessary.”
What do analysts expect?
This Friday the BCU presented its survey on Inflation Expectations and Economic Expectationsanswered by 26 financial institutions, consultants and independent economists.
According to the survey results, the median of analysts expects a dollar to $45.6 at the end of this year, 80 cents cheaper than the $46.4 estimated in January. This would imply an exchange rate 6% higher than the current one of $43.02.
The president of the BCU said that the Central Bank has projections that point to a “slight” appreciation of the dollarof “between 3% and 4% between now and the end of the year”
Refering to inflationspecialists barely raised their projections compared to the last survey and estimated a figure of 7.1% for this year, while they slightly moderated their forecasts for the following years. Are waiting 6.6% inflation in 2023 —or in 24 months, which is the horizon in which the BCU sets its objectives— and 6.1% in 2024.
In January, private agents had forecast that the year would close with a general increase in the prices of 7% (one tenth less than now) and figures of 6.6% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024.
Labat said he is currently more worried about expectations than the inflation data itself. To align them with the objectives outlined by the economic team, the BCU has been raising the Monetary Policy Rate gradually. Last Wednesday, raised it by 75 basis points —from 6.5% to 7.25%— and announced that he will do the same the next time the Monetary Policy Committee meets on April 17.
