The epidemic of dengue and chikungunya that has plagued Cuba for months could be under control at the beginning of 2026, according to mathematical models that evaluate its behavior.
This was revealed in the weekly meeting of Cuban authorities with experts and scientists on health issues. In it, mathematician Raúl Guinovart Díaz, director of Science and Technology at the University of Havana, explained that the models show a sustained decrease in the transmission of these arboviruses in much of the country.
However, the report warns of an increasing trend in Las Tunas, Holguín and the Isla de la Juventud, which, in the opinion of the specialist, requires maintaining vigilance and “continuing with the measures applied” to avoid a setback, he reviews. Cubadebate.
At the meeting, the Vice Minister of Public Health, Carilda Peña García, offered indicators that support this evolution, such as care for febrile syndromes, which fell 25.8% compared to the records of the previous week.
Likewise, he pointed out that in general the territories show decreases in registrations, although the epidemic stage is still maintained. In Matanzas, where the first chikungunya infections of the current epidemic were reported, the trend is already evaluated as favorable.
Already at the beginning of the week, the health authorities had stated that the epidemic seemed to be developing a “positive” course and heading “towards control” of both arboviruses.
Health authorities foresee a positive evolution of the chikungunya and dengue epidemic
Clinical scenario
In the clinical context, Dr. Ailuj Casanova Barreto, director of Medical and Social Care at Minsap, asserted that strategies are maintained to protect the most exposed groups.
More than 93% of pregnant women in an advanced stage are under medical supervision in healthcare centers and 27 patients remain serious or critical, most of them minors, who, according to the directive, are arriving at the services earlier and are progressing positively.
The health authorities also reviewed the organization of care for those with consequences of chikungunya. In Matanzas, more than 5 thousand people have required multidisciplinary consultations and about 60% have received rehabilitation, according to official data.
Just two days ago, Peña put the new cases of non-specific febrile syndrome detected in the previous week at 16,214 and also said that the incidence rate of dengue fever stood at 10.49 per 100,000 inhabitants in that period of time, compared to 15.25 the previous week.
The accumulated number of chikungunya cases stood at 48,223 infected, according to the vice minister, who did not provide the number of dengue cases.
The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), which bases its records on official figures, indicated that so far this year and until the second week of December, Cuba had accumulated 28,850 cases of dengue and 17 deaths from this disease.
As for the deceased, the latest official figure – from last Friday – raised the number of fatalities due to the epidemic to 55. About two thirds of the dead are minors.
The Cuban Government recognized for the first time in November that the country was suffering from an epidemic of dengue and chikungunya, despite the fact that the first cases of the latter ailment were diagnosed in July and that infections had skyrocketed in September and October in fertile ground for its expansion, due to the hygienic and health problems derived from the severe crisis on the island.
