In order to improve the quality of the data it offers and expand the statistical panorama to which Colombians currently have access to understand how the country is doing, mainly in terms of poverty, Dane announced that this week its statistical series were joined together. until 2012, under the new measurement parameters currently managed by the entity.
This work carried out on the poverty series between 2012-2020 is the result of a joint effort during the last year, with the help of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and had the objective of correcting the discontinuities in the time series of poverty generated by the methodological adjustments made in the Large Integrated Household Survey (GEIH) in 2021.
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Piedad Urdinola, director of Dane, explained that the connection was supervised and has the endorsement of the Committee of Experts on Poverty in Colombia, and will be essential to understand the behavior of poverty and extreme poverty during the last 12 years. He also explained that it could not be extended further back in time, because statistically it is not recommended.
“The National Planning Department also completely mirrors this entire methodology, that is, they autonomously and independently replicate all the same estimates that we make, in order to verify that there are no errors. This splicing exercise is a very judicious job so that we can make the time series comparable to the past,” said Urdinola.
Danny
Courtesy
Among the variations that come into play in this connection, Dane noted that one goes from the 2005 Census to the information from the 2018 Census, which affects population projections and expands the panorama of homes and data to be analyzed.
“What this change does is that it adjusts the sampling frames for any household survey, such as the Great Integrated Household Survey, which is the one with which we measure monetary and extreme monetary poverty. But let us also remember that already in 2021 the GIH, this same survey, had already had an update, under all international parameters and practices,” he explained.
In this it must also be said that new guidelines were adopted international, such as those of the ILO, for the Household Survey, updated in 2021. These updates are essential to better reflect the demographic and economic reality of the country, adjusting to scientific and technical advances.
“Like all sciences, statistics is one in which technical and methodological updates are allowed. The methods are updated and this is a science that is very dynamic and changing rapidly. So, to the extent that these changes occur, these adjustments are debated and applied, as we mentioned at this time,” he indicated.
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Changes in figures
With all of the above, the statistical authority highlighted that the connection is important because it guarantees the continuity and coherence of the time series, allowing historical trends to be analyzed and decisions to be made based on reliable data. Likewise, it is essential to have better socioeconomic indicators, such as poverty, that influence in the formulation of public policies, academic research and private sector decisions.
Piedad Urdinola, director of Dane
Courtesy
However, with the adjustments made, important changes were evident, such as, for example, during the pandemic there were higher poverty and extreme monetary poverty data than what was reported at the time.
To better understand this, it must be said that before splicing, The extreme poverty figure in 2020 (full peak of the pandemic) was 15.1%; while when making the adjustment it went to 17.3%. Similarly, monetary poverty was 42.5% in the non-matched series and rose to 43.1% with the changes made.
Given this, the first thing that Dane warns is that both figures are not comparable, but they confirm the importance of keeping the reference frameworks and population statistics updated, since they allow us to better understand the impact of problems such as poverty and formulate more accurate public policies.
“Let us remember that in Colombia the last census, before 2018, was in 2005. That is to say, 13 years had to pass to update this data and that is why when making the connection, larger data is seen. The international standard says that, for example, the population census must be carried out every 10 years and in a year that ends in zero. That is why the next one in Colombia will be in 2030,” said Piedad Urdinola.
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Regarding the possibility of making this connection to years prior to 2012, Director Urdinola indicated that this would be forcing the statistical models, since different methodologies were used and could influence the data obtained to lose the certainty and reliability that characterizes the entity. .
The process of splicing statistical series was carried out in several stages which began in 2021, with a parallel survey to measure the impact of methodological changes and design linking strategies. In 2022, the joining of labor market indicators (employed, unemployed and population outside the labor force) began using a smoothed factor.
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In 2023, this survey made it possible to join the poverty indicators between 2021 and 2022, so that this year would close with the joining of time series on monetary, extreme poverty and inequality (Gini) for the period 2012-2020. using structural time series modeling.
Finally, taking into account that the pandemic generated a significant shock in mortality and fertility, Dane reported that it also updated the population projections and that These figures, adjusted for the effects of Covid-19, will be presented in the coming months.
