Havana/Before Parliament, met by video conference In response to the serious energy and epidemic situation that the country is experiencing, the ministers tried to present a good face with the announcement, this Thursday, that the national economy will grow by 1% in 2026. Of course, the person in charge of the sector, Joaquín Alonso Vázquez, specified, it will happen on the condition that the situation does not worsen “due to the actions of the United States Government”, in an implicit reference to the repercussions that what may happen in Venezuela would have on the Island.
This optimism contrasts with the forecast of 0.1% growth announced for Cuba by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and, on the other hand, it seemed little to the deputies who pointed out that, if the official projections are met, “the current situation does not improve at all” and leaves a gap of 15% compared to the 2019 level. “They do not express the transformations that are required to reverse the crisis,” concluded the president of the commission, Félix Martínez. Suárez, who regretted the lack of precision in the investment figures in tourism and food production.
Tourism is one of the axes in which, the minister stubbornly continues to believe that there is potential for 2026 to be better than 2025, a year in which it was necessary to “face prioritized payments,” he said, citing among them the purchase of food and fuel, the improvement of the electro-energy system, medicines and defense, with – he admitted – insufficient results. And it fell short. Alonso forecast 2.2 million international travelers, saying this was 15.8% more than forecast for 2025; However, the projection for this year had been 2.5 million, that will remain at 1.9, as reported this Thursday.
US sanctions on medical missions raise doubts about whether the performance of this section can be increased
The other section in which the Government continues to maintain its hopes is the sale of medical services, which it cited along with tourism as the two most profitable, which together should contribute 7,438 million dollars (357 million more than in 2025). The US sanctions on medical missions raise doubts about whether the performance of this section can be increased, which is the one that yields the greatest dividends and makes it possible to compensate for the enormous deficit in the trade balance, whose data the minister does not detail and which reached 6,596 million dollars in 2024, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (Onei).
It is striking that the Government announces exports of only 1,122 million dollars for 2026, well below the 1,474 million registered in 2024 by Onei. And the forecasts for the private sector are not a sign of good economic health, since “exports are projected for around 40 million dollars and imports for around 2.6 billion.”
Also surprising is the minister’s announcement about the intention to export 30,000 tons of sugar, when it is known that Cuba is no longer able to cover its own internal demand and is forced to buy large quantities of this product from Brazil, France and even the United States. The forecasts announced by Alonso are even worse than the data that was handled until now in the absence of official information: the next harvest will barely be enough for 229,500 tons of raw sugar and 15,000 of refining This is, however, an increase compared to 2025, which was, according to the minister, lower than 102,200 and 11,900 tons, respectively. It is deduced that this year’s harvest was 130,400 tons, well below the 147,652 that had been estimated with the partial data available.
Alonso did not say how much is spent on importing fuel, which with food eats up the majority of the budget allocated to purchases.
Alonso did not say how much is spent on importing fuel – which with food eats up the majority of the budget allocated for purchases –, something logical since the way in which these purchases are paid for is one of the great state secrets. He only explained that by 2026 it is planned to acquire 7,547,000 tons, 1,253,000 tons higher than the estimate for 2025. All this despite the fact that in the corresponding commission, Vicente de la O Levy He said that next will be a year to “advance the energy transition and seek independence from fossil fuels.” The minister did not say anything new in his speech, except that 1.1 billion dollars were invested in his area, much of it in the unfinished reconstruction of the Matanzas Supertanker Base. The Minister of Economy, for his part, committed to reaching 13% renewable energy next year, with 51 photovoltaic parks, although he did not say what percentage the year will close with. Yesterday the Prime Minister, Manuel Marrero, indicated that 41 of these facilities had been synchronized to the system.
Alonso predicted that in 2026 transportation will improve, with a cargo volume of 30,450,000 tons – 31% more than in 2025 – and 923,635,000 passengers, 67,400 more than this year. The retail circulation of goods and services will grow much less, with 252,679 million pesos, only 1.3% more than the current year.
As for the state business system, the forecast is that net sales will increase by 151,085 million pesos, and although it was not stated with respect to which figure, it was warned that this implied “an average profitability of 15 cents per peso of sales (similar to the estimate at the end of 2021)”, which leaves the country at pandemic levels without taking into account the depreciation that the national currency has suffered, especially this week, when it was officially devalued by 70.73%, as the dollar rose 242%, “the largest devaluation of a currency in 2025 worldwide,” according to the Cuban economist Pedro Monreal.
Among the investments, which will be around 173,662 million pesos next year, the minister said, the sectors of food production, cement factories, thermal plants, renewable sources and water stand out, although money will not stop being allocated to tourism. It is also planned to complete 5,370 homes in the state sector and begin construction of 3,790 units.
“The year 2026 will persist as a complex scenario for the Cuban economy, with threats, tensions and risks”
“The year 2026 will persist as a complex scenario for the Cuban economy, with threats, tensions and risks that we must be able to overcome with our own efforts, the available resources, the reserves that we must mobilize and the opportunities that we must identify and manage,” he said.
Vladimir Regueiro Ale, Minister of Finance and Prices, explained in the commission the preliminary draft of the State Budgetwhose total amounts to 550,590 million pesos, 6% more than last year, of which 70% is allocated to social spending. In his case, he could boast of one fact: having reduced the fiscal deficit, thanks to “overcompliance with revenue collection and more efficient control of expenses,” he said. However, the figure is around 74.5 billion pesos, which is still “high.”
The data will not interest the population as much as the announcement of the increase in the average salary, which amounts to 6%, an increase that would be positive if the amount were not as ridiculous as 7,091 pesos per month, with which you can barely buy anything anymore. And much less since a dollar is now formally exchanged for 410 euros, a rate that is infinitely closer to that of The Touchaccused of economic terrorism, than the 120 that the Central Bank of Cuba had until Wednesday.
