Given the growing international pressure and the complex crisis in Venezuela, the scenario of a possible negotiated exit from power for Nicolás Maduro and his close circle has put on the table the need for countries to guarantee his security, that of his family and the fulfillment of possible agreements.
Analysts and press reports have pointed out Türkiye, Russia and Qatar as key actors in this geopolitical tension, while Cuba, historically Chavismo’s closest ally, seems to be relegated.
For now nothing is confirmed. According to US agencies and media, the administration of Donald Trump would have offered Maduro to go to Russia. However, there are other possible destinations, should he decide to leave power.
Russia: strategic destination and ally of Chavismo
Russia is a key military and political ally of Venezuela, and an exit to this country is a serious option that has been contemplated by US officials as part of a negotiated agreement.
It has been reported that the United States government has offered the possibility of exile for Maduro and his circle close to Russiaas part of a plan for a political transition in Venezuela.
Moscow provides political support and military assistance to Venezuela, which makes it a safe destination where the Venezuelan president could instrumentalize his asylum as a political asset against Washington.
Qatar: a discreet diplomatic bridge
The kingdom of Qatar has emerged not so much as an exile destination, but as a key facilitator in negotiations between Caracas and Washington.
Qatar has served as a discreet diplomatic bridge between the United States and the Maduro regime on several occasions, facilitating dialogue and mechanisms of understanding in the midst of confrontation.
This country has a long history of mediating conflicts between actors with divergent interests, and that gives it credibility to handle complex agreements, such as prisoner exchanges or transition proposals.
Türkiye: a safe haven
Turkey has been highlighted as a viable and safer exile refuge due to the relationship of trust between the rulers.
Türkiye offers a refuge that is less subject to pressure from other countries, which could ensure that the terms of a potential asylum deal are upheld. It is also said that Maduro also has wealth and contacts there.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan seen as credible facilitator that could mediate a Venezuelan transition, adding the conflict to its history of diplomatic resolutions.
Why wouldn’t Cuba be an option for exile?
Despite their ideological and historical closeness, Cuba seems to be a discarded option for Maduro’s exile.
And Cuba is extremely vulnerable to economic pressure from the United States, which could intensify sanctions if the country welcomed the Chavista leader. An exile on the island would put Havana in an unsustainable situation.
Furthermore, being so close to the United States could be considered too high a security risk for the Venezuelan, who would look for a place where he feels out of judicial reach.
