The arrival of Donald Trump To the White House aroused concern about the future of the International transactions and an authentic Commercial War threats, duty and retaliation measures.
So are things a week after tensions began.
– China: the ban opened –
Since Tuesday, USA Impose duty additional customs of 10% to all products imported from China. Beijing responded with duty of 15% to coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 10% to oil, as well as agricultural machinery, vehicles …
At the moment, “Retail measures [chinas] They are quite less high in proportion, “the American bank observed Goldman Sachs. The new Chinese rates would apply to about 14,000 million dollars of estate Americans, while those announced by Trump They would concern 525,000 million dollars of estate Chinese.
“However, the combination of countermeasures points to a more coordinated approach” of China that, at the same time, it harden the restrictions on critical mineral exports and opened a antitrust research against the American giant Google.
Now it’s the turn of negotiation and the FANFARRONERÍA Between the two greatest world powers. Donald Trump He said Monday that he could talk to his Chinese counterpart by phone quickly, but then said that he was not “hurry” to talk to Xi Jinping.
– Mexico and Canada: White Flag –
Practically as soon as he imposed them, Trump temporarily suspended them duty 25% against Mexico and Canada, which will be reexamined within a month. In return, the two neighboring countries of USA They promised to do more to stop the drug trafficking and the irregular migration In its borders.
Canada, who was already in the spotlight during the first mandate of Trumpfrom 2017 to 2021, I was prepared to replicate. But, in the end, the province of Ontario, the country’s economic heart, resigned to veto the companies Americans from public contracts and to cancel a contract with Starlkink, the company owned by the billionaire Elon Muskally of the US president.
– Europe: on guard –
Europe It also seems to be in the sights of Trumpthat Sunday said that “very soon” would make a decision regarding the old continent.
Brussels has been preparing several scenarios for months, to ensure that the EU is prepared to face an eventual conflict. The Automotive sectorsthe machinery and the metallurgical They are the most exposed. During his first term, the Republican imposed duty at European exports of steel and aluminum, which led to the block to respond.
According to Goldman Sachs40% of European exports to USA could be affected by dutywhich could represent 1% of European GDP.
“We will have to participate in talks difficult, even with partners of a lifetime, “said the president of the European CommissionUrsula von der Leyen, who called “making decisions without emotion or nostalgia, but according to a calculation about what our own interest is.”
– Companies: General mobilization –
The companies They could suffer the consequences of duty very differently. For example, the owner of Barbie, the Mattel group, said Tuesday that he could be forced to increase his prices, as some of the components of his toys come from China.
At companies foreigners who export to USAthe duty customs could deprive them of a market important. Some could even relocate their factories in USAfor example, signatures of the European automotive sector that have plants in Mexico.
More global, the atmosphere of uncertainty It ends up weighing in the strategic decisions of the groups.
“It is a vicious circle: even if the dutythere is a loss of potential “since”companies They do not invest “in a climate of uncertaintyAna Boata, economist at Allianz-Trade, told AFP.
– Globalization: in front –
The wave protectionist launched by Trump and your strategy to give priority to talks bilateral puts once again the limits of the Globalizationwhich had already been undermined by pandemic and war in Ukraine.
Especially considering that in the World Trade Organization (WTO), bastion of a Globalization Structured, the mechanism designed to solve the differences in a peaceful way has been paralyzed for years … USA.
However, I should not expect panic, according to experts.
“He international trade measured in volume continues to grow, “the former WTO general director Pascal Lamy was recently told AFP.” Globalization It transforms, it goes less fast, but, in any case, it does not go back. “
We are attending a new “order, where the weakest must negotiate in response or proactively,” said Ana Boata.
