The Colombian economy would begin to show signs of moderation in the coming months, according to the most recent Economic Activity Indicator of the Bank of Bogotá, which warns that the country would have grown barely 2% annually in August. a rate significantly lower than the 4.4% recorded in July.
For these analysts, the loss of momentum is largely due to the slowdown in household consumption, the drop in housing construction and an economic environment marked by persistent inflation and low consumer confidence.
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In this sense, the report indicates that August growth was affected by fewer working days, a slight rise in interest rates and a moderation in job creation and although they recognize that the economy maintains a positive balance, analysts warn that the second half of the year could close with clearer signs of cooling, driven by the reduction in private spending.
According to Raddar calculations, household spending increased only 4.6% in August, the lowest level in four months, compared to 5.6% in July; Therefore, this loss of dynamism directly hit commerce, industry, transportation and accommodation, sectors that had been recovering during the first semester.
Economic growth in Colombia has made moderate progress in 2025.
Image from ChatGPT
However, activities such as agriculture, civil works and mining helped partially sustain growth, avoiding a more pronounced decline, since agriculture was consolidated as one of the pillars of the economy and despite the logistical problems derived from the closure of the Vía al Llano, agricultural production remained solid, driven by a greater supply of fruits, vegetables and tubers.
A setback for housing
The panorama is different in housing construction, which is going through one of its most difficult moments, since only 6,100 new housing units were started in September, a drop of 38% compared to last year. This behavior reflects not only the lower demand, but also the high financial costs and credit restrictions that have slowed projects across the country.
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On the other hand, the construction of civil works, on the contrary, is beginning to show signs of improvement thanks to greater execution of the General Budget of the Nation and infrastructure projects underway.
Other sectors also felt the change of pace, including the manufacturing industry, which continues expanding, although at a slower speed, while commerce and tourism moderated their growth. The arrival of foreign visitors increased only 0.5% in August, compared to 6.8% in July, reflecting less dynamism in tourist spending.
Economic growth in Colombia has made moderate progress in 2025.
Image from ChatGPT
Despite this environment of lower activity, some factors continue to support domestic consumption and remittances reached US$1,096 million in August, driven by an average exchange rate of $4,050 per dollar, which strengthened the purchasing power of receiving households. In turn, the commercial portfolio grew more than 6% annually and the consumer portfolio rose 4.1%, its best record since mid-2023, which suggests a greater willingness of households to take on debt.
In terms of confidence, the consumer indicator returned to positive territory after four months in the red, going from -2.4% in August to 1.6% in September. This rebound is explained by the stability of the exchange rate, the promotion of commercial events such as the Home Fair and the slight increase in formal employment.
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Given this, the Bank of Bogotá maintains its GDP growth projection at 2.7% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026, although it recognizes that external risks and political uncertainty could limit the recovery, confirming that the economy will continue to grow, but with increasingly evident signs of fatigue; Therefore, the challenge will be to maintain the balance between reactivation and stability, at a time when the country seems to be entering a transition stage towards slower, but sustainable growth.
DANIEL HERNÁNDEZ NARANJO
Portfolio Journalist
