As the November 24th runoff approaches, the right-wing coalition faces a climate full of uncertainty and internal divisionswhile the final results of the vote count on October 27 have significantly shaped the electoral landscape.
The Electoral Court confirmed that the Frente Amplio (FA) led the voteobtaining a total of 1,071,826 votesfollowed by the National Party with 655,426and the Colorado Party with 392,592.
Other, smaller parties, such as Identidad Soberana and Cabildo Abierto, obtained 65,790 and 60,549 votes, respectively, while the Independent Party reached 41,618 votes.
From the Broad Frontit is considered that it will be relatively easy to add the three or four points necessary to ensure his return to the Executive Branch in the runoff. Fernando Pereira, president of the FA, anticipated that adjustments will be made to the campaign to capture the votes of smaller parties, recalling that in previous elections, the Frente Amplio managed to significantly increase its support between the first and second rounds. A clear example of this is seen in the 2019 runoffwhere the left recovered nearly 200 thousand votes and lost the election by only 30 thousand votes.
However, the government coalition maintains that 47.6% of the votes obtained in the first round positions Alvaro Delgado as the favorite, a number that was not obtained by any party alone, but is the sum of the electorates of associated candidates. For his part, Andrés Ojeda, candidate of the Colorado Party, highlighted the clarity of the coalition’s victory over the FA, indicating that it “won” with a difference of 100 thousand votes.
His statement, however, about acting as a “co-government” generated frictional reactions within the alliance, revealing internal divisions that could complicate the unity necessary for a victory in the runoff. The red candidate received criticism from both the National Party and the red trenches themselves.
Changes in the electoral map force us to recalculate strategies
The final count also revealed the geographical distribution of the votes, with the Frente Amplio leading in 12 departments, including Montevideo, Canelones, Rocha, Salto, Paysandú, Río Negro, Soriano, Colonia, San José, Florida, Durazno and Tacuarembó. For its part, the National Party ranked first in 6 departments: Maldonado, Lavalleja, Treinta y Tres, Cerro Largo, Flores and Artigas, while the Colorado Party achieved a victory in Rivera.
The importance of capturing and retaining the votes of minor parties will be crucial for any candidate who aspires to win the runoff.. In this sense, the surprising performance of Identidad Soberana was recorded, which managed to obtain two seats in Deputies thanks to its almost 65 thousand votes, while Gustavo Salle called for an annulled vote. The Environmentalist Constitutional Party, with 12 thousand votes, also showed its support for Delgado, while César Vega of the Intransigent Radical Ecologist Party obtained 9 thousand votes, and parties such as Popular Assembly and Avanzar Republicano are added to the list, whose support can influence the final result.
The scrutiny also revealed that the initiative that sought to reform the constitution to allow night raids received the support of 961,926 votes, while 947,381 votes were for the plebiscite that proposed changes in the social security. The number of blank votes reached 32,356 and those canceled totaled 52,750, reflecting the different positions of citizens regarding the proposals presented.
In this context, the challenge for the ruling party is twofold. On the one hand, it must demonstrate internal cohesion to confront the tensions that emerge between the different sectors of the coalition. On the other hand, it must gain the support of the minor parties, which have become crucial in this electoral contest. Without a clear and united strategy, the path to the runoff could become even more complicated.
Delgado’s victory will depend largely on the support he receives from his partners and the work environment that prevails among them. If the divisions and power struggles between the partners persist, which were accentuated after October 27, then November 24 could not be a day of celebration, but rather a day of reflection on the lessons learned in this electoral process.
