President Gustavo Petroon February 27, surprisingly announced the departure of three ministers: Alexander Gaviria (Education), Maria Isabel Urrutia (Sport) and Patricia Ariza (Culture).
All this occurred in the middle of the stage for the health and labor reforms that the Government has been proposing and that are under discussion by the instances of the national political conglomerate, as well as the response of various members of Petro’s cabinet to the health reform.
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Under this paradigm, what will happen then with the reforms? What happens to them? And how is the Government going to go ahead with these after the departure of three officials from its ministerial cabinet?
Jhon Jairo Bustos Espinosa, a partner at Insignares & Bustos Asociados, told Portafolio that the Government made a “firm” position clear facing the future of the proposed restructurings.
“The great challenge of the new ministers is to validate that message from President Gustavo Petro to the consensus; even when the outgoing ministers, precisely, stepped aside for these reasons; an important impact that is going to be reflected in Congress and in the process of approving these reforms, because surely Congress, with all these changes and with all this media impact of the departure of the ministers, is going to analyze much more carefully and he will surely study the approval of these reforms very well”.
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This new panorama, already with three outgoing ministers, can trigger various scenarios in the face of the continuity in the approval of the reforms. However, the position regarding this can also vary, since it can mean a way of making clear the position of giving effect to the reform as it was presented, accepting changes or studying counterproposals.
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Alexander Rojas, professor of the Global History & Comparative Studies of the Americas courses, in the Political Science and Government program at Universidad El Bosque, explained to Portafolio how this situation could proceed.
Impacts on the reforms that are being processed after the recent ministerial changes
From a pessimistic position, the expert assures that this course of action can make clear the position of the Government to have greater control over the reforms unilaterally.
“The departure of figures from the center and closely linked to Santismo (Minister Alejandro Gaviria) and, therefore, with some neoliberal narratives of the State, can lead to a radicalization of the government in the visions of the left: not necessarily socialist, but yes more in terms of a State that is more intervening, regulating, controlling. This scenario would imply a loss of pluralism that brought the current government to power in the 2022 elections and the formation of a multi-party cabinet. Its worst result would be an isolated government with critical governance problems due to its radicalization, which in terms of Reforms would translate into a potential government paralysis: a solitary government with a Legislative in conflict or minorityRojas explained.
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On the other hand, the optimistic scenario that the professor mentions is that, with the departure of Alejandro Gaviria, the cabinet would be more stabilized in its discourse and in its course of action; something that was questioned during the term of office.
“The departure of Alejandro Gaviria is not a sign of a government crisis. The former minister is an outstanding person but not a political leader with the capacity to destabilize a government (4th place in the internal consultation of Coalición Centro-Esperanza in 2022). On the contrary, it may be the opportunity to rebalance the cabinet and seek new allies who really sympathize with the structural reforms proposed by G. Petro. An early change and starting a year of Reforms can, on the contrary, provide stability, unity of criteria and a multi-party balance that guarantees governability. In this case, the reforms could be an opportunity to strengthen alliances and guarantee their effective passage in Congress.”.
What is the message that Petro sends with those decisions that he is making?
“The message is clear: the government needs stability, unity of criteria and a multi-party balance that guarantees governability. This “internal purge” strategy can be seen as a necessity in a government takeoff marked by a tough legislative agenda. In this sense, internal discrepancy may be a sign of political “weakness” of the head of government (President), and therefore, it may translate outwardly into a political incapacity to negotiate the reforms in Congress.”.
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