Knowing where the country’s economy is going is one of the concerns that has been generating the most debate among analysts, since the slowdown continues to reign and has several important fronts in the red, but towards the future It seems that everything will continue to improve and that little by little the pace of growth will return to normal.
The most recent space for conversations on this topic took place a few days ago at Banco Itaú’s Macrovision, which brought together several of the most renowned economists and experts; to review the local and regional economic outlook; and give their projections, balances and alerts on the economic and fiscal situation of Colombia and the region.
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On this occasion, the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, the former Minister of Environment and Agriculture, Cecilia López; the researcher and economics professor at the University of Los Andes, Marcela Eslava, and the former Ministers of Finance, Mauricio Cárdenas and Juan Carlos Echeverry; for whom, on the one hand, the country has not stopped dancing with the ugliest and urgent actions are needed.
One of the first to give his insights was Minister Bonilla, who spoke of the successful placement of global bonds for US $3,640 million that the Nation made a few days ago in international markets to meet the 2024 financing goals and partially pre-finance the term. 2025. Highlighting that there is appetite for the local market and that this was reflected in the behavior of investors.
Economic growth
“This is a reflection of the international trust that exists in the management of the economy in Colombia; while clarifying that the resources will allow the Government to solve cash issues for this year, as well as to repurchase public debt bonds with maturities in 2026 and 2027,” the official said.
The head of the Treasury portfolio also spoke about the good performance that inflation has had in recent months and assured that this indicator could end at 5.3% at the end of 2024, leaving more room for greater flexibility in monetary policy. . Likewise, he recalled that the country has the task of dismantling subsidies to the ACPM to reduce the fiscal deficit and that closing the differential with international prices would have an impact of 1.4 pp on inflation.
Warning signs
When reviewing what is coming for the Colombian economy in the next two yearsfrom Itaú they highlighted that the analysts convened made it clear that attention should be focused on fronts such as the labor market, institutions, the financing law, the country’s energy reality and economic reactivation, which for now are those that generate opinions among Government and other sectors.
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For example, Marcela Eslava said that “Colombia has a labor market in which several of its economic problems are manifested, one of them informality, so it is necessary to evaluate a reform that truly solves this situation instead of aggravating it.” .
For her part, former minister Cecilia López spoke about the technical seriousness of the Banco de la República and highlighted the professional qualities of its co-directors, who for decades have made decisions based on the economic reality of the country.
In the case of former ministers Juan Carlos Echeverry and Mauricio Cárdenas, the priority is the energy crisis that could occur in the country due to the lack of gas and the inconvenience of measures such as the financing law at times when the country’s priority must be to ensure its fiscal stability.
Colombian pesos
These two figures invited the Government to reflect on the decisions that it has taken with respect to exploration contracts, fracking and the import of this product from other countries and to review that it does not fall into a scenario of more spending via subsidies for public services and reduction in income tax.
Finally, they referred to the state of the economy and made it clear that Colombia is no longer waiting for the implementation of a reactivation plan, which must have as its central axis the generation of confidence and the attraction of investors.
In this sense, Baruc Sáez, president of Itaú, closed by saying that there is growth potential in Colombia, while reaffirming the commitment of the Bank for being an ally and being close to its clients to promote its transformative power.
