The Castro Deck exposes who really moves the chips in Havana

Havana/A recurring question among those who seek to understand the framework of power in Cuba is: who is really in charge here? The recently presented Castro Card tries to answer that question with a political casino format. There are 56 letters that give a face, rank and pedigree to the power players on the Island, just when Washington talks about negotiations “at the highest level” and Havana tries – without much success – to put on a poker face.

The project, promoted by the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora (Madc) and the Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba (Fhrc), comes at a time when the island’s economy is creaking at all the seams and the leadership of Cuban power is in the crosshairs of academics, analysts and doomsayers.

In this deck, the ace of spades is beyond discussion. Raúl Castro – 94 years old and still with one foot in the casino, rather than in the stirrup – heads the pack of cards. More picturesque is the place assigned to Miguel Díaz-Canel, who appears in the deck as the ace of hearts. A colorful title, yes, although in practice many Cubans would not bet much on that card. The current president has shown that he does not always have access to the chips of hard politics, playing a role closer to bureaucratic decoration than to real decision-making.

Miguel Cossío, executive director of Madc and brain of the project, he says it without shuffling too much: the regime – he affirms – “has closed itself to gain time” in the face of pressure from the United States and the North American electoral calendar. The move, he warns, could push the island into an even deeper humanitarian crisis if the game is prolonged.

The deck is not limited to the usual faces on the news. It includes members of the Castro family, military leaders, state security operators and a collection of figures who, in the words of the study itself, belong to the “nominal structure.”

According to Cossío, who is also a journalist, hard power remains concentrated in the family and military core of Castroism. Said in good Cuban, the chips have not changed owners. Among the letters directly linked to the clan appear two children of Raúl Castro –Alejandro and Mariela–, his grandson Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez, alias The Crab –a member of his personal bodyguard and usual shadow–, and the deputy prime minister and head of Foreign Trade, the great-nephew Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga.

But in every deck there are figures that seem secondary until they raise their eyebrows. The study highlights the weight of General José Amado Ricardo Guerra, Raúl Castro’s old confidant and for years secretary of the Council of Ministers. Another key figure, however, jumped to the bottom of the deck: Commander Ramiro Valdés now occupies the two of diamonds, after increasing rumors about his imminent “physical disappearance.”

For the authors, the usefulness of the initiative goes beyond the media hit. Cossío maintains that the map can serve US agencies interested in understanding who really moves the chips in Havana, especially if the bilateral fight evolves towards some type of negotiation or agreed transition.

The launch coincides with repeated statements by US President Donald Trump that his Administration is holding talks with senior officials of the Cuban regime. “Marco Rubio is talking to Cuba right now,” he stated a few days ago. Different media have reported conversations with Alejandro Castro Espín or with The Crab.

Cossío draws three possible short-term plays: a repressed social explosion that forces external moves; a humanitarian deterioration so severe that it forces assistance intervention; or a more surgical strategy by Washington to fracture the core of power.

The analyst rules out, however, the appearance in Cuba of a key figure in the style of Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela. In his opinion, the difference is in the DNA of the system, because the Cuban system was born from weapons and was structured with the discipline of a permanent barracks, without democratic threats.

From Miami, Marcell Felipe, president of the Madc, assures that the investigation appears at “a crucial moment,” while Tony Costa, of the Fhrc, insists that any future for Cuba will have to be built on truth and justice.

Meanwhile, the Castro Deck is already circulating, ready for everyone to make their own bets. The White House seems willing to go for anything and has made it clear that this is not “a bluff.” Whether the regime is a house of cards about to collapse or a poker table capable of withstanding the hand that is coming upon it, is a discussion that remains to be defined.