SANTO DOMINGO.– The postponement of the Summit of the Americas works as a political signal that confirms that the Caribbean goes through a rare peak of tension and which has as a backdrop the large-scale US military deployment in the basin.
The movement of aircraft carriers, ships, planes and logistics that Washington fits into the “war on drug trafficking”due to its volume, scope and geography, can be interpreted as preparation for disaster scenarios. force around Venezuela, with knock-on effects on Cuba, especially in oil supply.
own Dominican Foreign Ministry, When announcing the postponement, he referred to thes “deep divergences” that today prevent a productive hemispheric dialogue, validating the diagnosis of an extraordinarily tense climate.
Recently, Reuters documented the reactivation and modernization of the former base of Roosevelt Roadsin Puerto Rico inactive since the Cold War, along with support works in nearby airports, forming a scaffolding of pre-deployment less than 800 km from the Venezuelan coast. The observed pattern (runways, taxiways, logistics areas) is typical of a staging point for sustained operations, not just transit.
Added to this is a naval and air presence “unusually wide. The president himself donald trump has been responsible for reporting multiple lethal attacks against boats accused of drug trafficking in waters near Venezuela and, more recently, in the eastern Pacific.
Also read: The US supports the Dominican Republic’s decision to postpone the Summit of the Americas
There is no formal announcement of a land or air-naval operation “classic” about Venezuela. But the set of signals such as the preparation of bases, the military deployment, the legality of the coups and the rhetoric of ““narco-terrorism” makes it plausible to escalate towards deeper actions.
The speech of United States vs. Nicolas Maduro and his regime allows us to draw a parallel with the one used prior to the invasion of Panama to overthrow the general Manuel Antonio Noriegastarted on December 20, 1989.
Before the US military incursion, General Noriega was accused of having proven links to the Medellín cartel, headed by the bloody Pablo Escobar, and of having seized power fraudulently, leading to persecutions and physical attacks against his opponents.
Nicolás Maduro is facing the same accusations of links to drug trafficking by promoting the so-called Poster of the Suns; There is even an arrest warrant and even a reward against him. Likewise, the countries of the region do not recognize Maduro as president of Venezuela for having clung to power through electoral fraud and for establishing a tenacious persecution against his opponents, whose main exponents have had to go underground or into exile.
The scenario is similar, but the two countries are different. The possibilities of a land invasion of Venezuela are not the same as those of Panama in 1989, so remote or specific actions to internally destabilize the Maduro regime are not ruled out, leaving the infantry work to the Venezuelans themselves from their territory.
Domino effect on Cuba
If the pressure vector intensifies over Venezuela, its ally Cuba may be immediately affected by oil.
The Cuban economy depends on Venezuelan shipments that have ranged between 27,000 and 52,000 barrels per day in 2024-2025, according to data from Reuters and recent export records. Any operational interruption will deepen the Cuban energy crisis.
The situation worsens because the internal production of Cuba is around 40,000 barrels per daybarely a third of its demand (approximately 120,000 barrels per day), and its heavy and sulfurous crude deteriorates equipment.
Havana depends on opaque corridors and specific support (Mexico, Russia, China). A tightening of maritime control or a drop in Venezuelan exports would immediately impact blackouts and transportation.
But not only that: there is an aspect that has to do with the internal politics of the United States and that cannot go unnoticed. The Secretary of State of the United States, Marco Rubiois a former legislator from Florida, of Cuban origin, who has anti-Castroism as one of his main sources of support.
Postponement of the summit, a sign
The decision announced by the Dominican government—but which was ultimately coordinated with the United States, which immediately announced its support for the measure—confirms that the environment is not one of “normal differences,” but rather a deep tension that transcends discourse.
The official Dominican statement speaks of deep divergences and an ungovernable regional agenda in these conditions, a diagnosis consistent with the increase in lethality at sea, the density of deployment and the multiplication of incidents with Venezuela.
The decision to postpone avoids a summit dominated by tension or by possible claims against the United States due to actions that could occur before December 4, the date on which it was scheduled.
