The breakdown of the rules-based international order is what we are now experiencing. Likewise, the integration by the great powers of economic zones and punitive tariffs as an instrument of power.
The axis of the breakdown of the international order is the Trump government by withdrawing from more than 40 international agreements that allow cooperation in health, education, culture, security, financing, justice, foreign assistance, and climate change.
It has imposed the highest tariffs on China, the most important geopolitical threat the US has faced. China responds by protecting its products and markets. It has the capacity for retaliation. Along with India, it has the highest levels of economic growth, a market of 1.4 billion consumers and a powerful army. China wants a new world order but not led by the US.
Europe, a historical ally of the US, Trump threatened to buy or conquer Greenland. After a negotiation with NATO, Trump backed down. As a result, Europe is reorganizing its security.
To Canada, for its probable trade agreement with China, Trump threatened with a 100% tariff. The Canadian government has decided to invest in technology, industry and defense so as not to be subordinate to the great powers.
Trump’s proposal to create a Peace Board, chaired by him, instead of supporting the UN to do its work, was ignored by world powers, but Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar approved it.
To India that decided to buy cheap oil from Russia, the US imposed tariffs of 50%, which led to negotiations for commitments of reciprocal support.
With Putin he wanted to divide Ukraine, leaving the US with the region of minerals and rare earths, but Putin did not allow it.
What is seen is that Trump adopts a policy of coercion, far from the Wilsonian objectives of the past: peace, stability, progress. It also dismisses the Bretton Woods agreements that launched a new era of economic cooperation.
Small and medium-sized countries are opening up to the international economy to secure markets and investments. China is now the largest investor and trader in the world’s largest free trade zone in Africa. In Latin America, countries such as Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay and Chile are approaching China. Mexico is in the USMCA with all its questions and Brazil is in the BRICS.
Henry Kissinger in his book “Diplomacy” wrote: “In an international system characterized perhaps by five to six great powers and a multiplicity of smaller states, order will have to emerge, much as it did in centuries past, from a reconciliation and balance of competing national interests.”
