2021 began with the second wave of the pandemic, which was worse than the first. Contagions and deaths returned. This not only affected thousands of families who lost more loved ones, but also others who wanted to get out of the economic crisis, due to the slowdown of the productive apparatus in 2020.
Internal and external factors hit Peruvian household income. Currently, inflation, as of November, is at 6.24%. At the end of 2021 it is likely to exceed 7%, well above the BCR’s target range of 2%, with a margin of +/- 1%. It is the highest figure in 10 years.
In 2008 it was 6.7%, almost for the same reasons as today: rise in international prices and supply problems (corn, wheat, soybeans, oil, gas and difficulties in world logistics), but now we have an additional variable: uncertainty policy, which influenced the historical increase in the exchange rate. The sol depreciated 11.8% against the dollar, which had a 1.2% effect on inflation. For many families, that number makes a difference. According to the INEI, in the mobile year October 2020 – September 2021, the average salaries in Metropolitan Lima were S / 1,379, 5.7% less than in October 2019 – September 2020, and 12.8% less than in October 2018 – September 2019.
If we consider that the cost of the basic food basket is S / 360 per person (as of 2020) and we see the average income by sex, a family of four in which only the father works would be covering their basic needs and there is a balance left for savings and leisure, since he earns S / 1,564, but if the mother is the one who works, the family cannot cover important assets for S / 313, which is equivalent to 23% of the basket.
Does the government have responsibility in this situation? Yes, because it made all the possible mistakes, sent the wrong messages, caused uncertainty and mistrust, and affected investment expectations, without which there will be no adequate employment or better salaries, and the pockets of taxpayers will continue to be pierced.
Informality also increased
Unemployment generated by the pandemic throughout 2020 has been reducing this year, but on the informal side of the national economy. Precisely where productivity is low, so poor salaries are paid. According to the National Institute of Informatics Statistics (INEI), at the urban level and for the mobile year October 2020-September 2021, it is calculated that 9 million 516 thousand people have informal employment, which represents 73% of the total of employees in the urban area.
If we compare it with a year ago, the population with informal employment increased by 22.9%, to 1.7 million people and compared to two years ago (October 2018-September 2019), it grew by 686 thousand people, 7.8% more. In rural areas, the level of informality reaches an incredible 95.6%.
To reverse this situation, political uncertainty must be reduced, to begin to attract private investment, which is what generates quality jobs.
:quality(75)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcomercio/GQA5VEO6DZDGFIXHOWEPR4OQLM.jpg "The (beaten) taxpayers pocket in 2021")
La Yapa: the increase in the price of gas
The rise in the price of gas, both natural and LPG, is one of the factors that made inflation rise the most in recent months. In November, it increased by 10.5%, despite the fact that LPG returned to the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC). This measure did not have results, because gas continues to increase in prices in the international market. Two reasons generate the increase. The first is the global economic reactivation and the second is the arrival of the boreal winter that causes the demand for gas to increase to face the cold.
