The assembly of the revocation

The figure of the recall causes strangeness to an electorate that elected a president for six years and who could only be removed from office for treason and serious crimes, through a political trial…

President López Obrador said in his morning press conference that the recall referendum will give the opposition an opportunity to express their feelings about his government. To try to convince a skeptical and disinterested citizenry, the president does not care about violating the Constitution, which prohibits him from using public resources to promote the recall and orders the suspension of all government propaganda, except that related to health, education and civil protection. .

Not content with this, the Tabasco politician also resorts to “aggressive selling”, a marketing technique that seeks to push the customer to buy impulsively and as much as possible. “If I do not have the majority, I am leaving, I am leaving the Presidency”, even “if 40% do not participate”, he said, referring to the participation threshold established in the Magna Carta so that the result of the recall referendum is binding.

But the revocation of López Obrador’s mandate is such an obvious political setup that no one, except for Morena’s operators, has an interest in this process. The figure of the recall causes surprise to an electorate that elected a president for six years and who could only be removed from office for treason against the country and serious crimes, through a political trial. Now it turns out that the President of the Republic can be removed for mere “loss of trust”, like any other employee.

But it must be even more strange that it is President López Obrador himself and his followers who promote the revocation of the mandate. “We are going to vote for AMLO to continue” says Morena’s propaganda (also illegal, by the way), when no one is asking for him to leave.

In reality, López Obrador is using the figure of revocation of mandate to have a kind of re-election. He wants to perform it to show that he is still a popular president. Although a majority sees it well that the recall consultation is carried out, the difficult thing will be for them to go to vote on the day it is held. In the last popular consultation to bring the former presidents to trial, the turnout was only 7.1 percent.

The other part of the political montage has to do with the effects of the revocation of the mandate. The Constitution provides that, in the event that the consultation is valid – for which a 40% participation is required – and a majority decides for the dismissal, the person who would temporarily replace López Obrador would be the president of Congress. Then, the Congress itself would designate the person who would assume the position of President of the Republic until November 30, 2024.

This means that, if López Obrador were to be dismissed by revocation of his mandate, the appointment of his successor would remain in the hands of Morena and her allies. Thus, the Tabasco politician does not really run risks. On the one hand, he is aware that his popularity levels shield him from any impeachment attempt and, on the other hand, he knows that even if he loses he will be able to name his successor.

Critics of López Obrador and the opposition are clear that the revocation process is a setup and that the dice are loaded against him. The president’s popularity will not fall in one fell swoop, but will gradually wear down, a victim of internal divisions, scandals and lack of results. Revocation of mandate doesn’t just mean a bet with the odds against it; furthermore, if successful, he would only succeed in replacing López Obrador with a different version of himself.

*Professor at CIDE.

Twitter: @BenitoNacif