Less than 90 days before the judicial elections and on the verge of leaving their posts, the magistrates of the Plurinational Constitutional Court (TCP) are distancing themselves from President Luis Arce and are taking away the lifeline that holding the referendum represented for his government.
With their last two actions, the TCP magistrates mark their distance from the arcistas: not giving a quick response to the action of unconstitutionality presented by the deputy Juan Jáuregui that sought to enable Arce to call for a constitutional referendum; and second, that this same Court He declared Arce’s intention to call for this referendum “inappropriate.”
Constitutional lawyers and political experts see that this situation has aggravated the social conflict due to the lack of dollars and the shortage of fuel, facts that lead to the increase in the prices of products in the family basket. Added to this are the announcements of protests by sectors of the Evo government and the Calls for early general elections. Furthermore, they see that Arce, without governability in the Legislature, is facing his worst moment and is between a rock and a hard place.
Constitutional lawyer José Luis Santistevan identified three factors that aggravate the situation of the current Government and put the stability of democracy at risk: the wrong actions of the Executive in trying to hold an “unconstitutional” referendum, the Lack of governability without support from Parliament and a weak Executive without the capacity to propose solutions to the crisis, and the departure of the TCP magistrates, whose hours in office are numbered.
“One can perceive that the self-extended magistrates of the Constitutional Court are already taking care of themselves, they are taking care of their freedom and their future as magistrates because they will have to answer and They are protecting themselves from falling into further crime through judicial rulings, because they know they will respond at some point. No one is in power forever,” said Santistevan.
In addition to that, the constitutionalist Santistevan sees that the TCP’s position is because the Government of Arce did not guarantee his positions for at least two or three more years.
“Their self-extension will last almost a year because after the judicial elections on December 1, the results will be out in five days and they already have to start packing their bags to leave so that others can be sworn in. The differences have arisen due to the failure to keep promises,” added Santistevan.
Without the operational arm of the TCP?
In recent years, the TCP issued resolutions, rulings and sentences that directly favored the Executive and annulled the powers of the Legislature, such as, for example, a precautionary measure froze the power to question Arce’s ministers (August 2023).
On two occasions, TCP suspended the competence of the president of the SenateAndrónico Rodríguez, to call sessions of the Legislative Assembly. The first was in December 2023 and the second in June of this year, when Deputy Jáuregui submitted an appeal to the TCP for annulment and in a matter of hours the magistrates issued a resolution declaring Rodríguez’s call null and void. In that session, more than two-thirds of the Senate and Deputies revoked the magistrates’ extension.
However, since August, the romance between the Government and the TCP seems to have come to an end, since the last action that Jáuregui presented, which sought to enable Arce to call a constitutional referendum, did not have the express response that the Government and Jáuregui expected. And the last blow was that of August 29, declares the “inappropriateness of the consultation of questions for a referendum” made by the president.”
“The Government no longer has guarantees in the TCP to establish measures against the Legislative Assembly, along with this, the Government lost all credibility with his ministers, “For example, the actions of the Minister of Justice (Iván Lima) in wanting to force an unconstitutional referendum. With everything he does, the Government has lost even a shred of credibility to continue governing. It should reflect, listen to the real productive sectors and take concrete economic measures,” said Santistevan.
Unresolved conflicts?
For historian and analyst Pedro Portugal, the TCP’s distancing is due precisely to the fact that the Government of Luis Arce entered into a spiral of social conflicts that do not seem to have a solution other than shortening its constitutional mandate.
“This distancing is a reflection of what is colloquially said about the famous rats that abandon the ship when it is sinking. The state apparatus is no longer solid or solvent and this will be reflected in the entire institutional apparatus, not just in the judicial system,” said Portugal.
The expert pointed out that with this economic, political and social crisis, Arce faces the consequences of his own doubts and lack of ability to solve the internal conflicts of his party at the right time, such as, for example, keeping the issue of re-election on the agenda when there is already a constitutional ruling on the matter; keeping Morales’ social productive community model intact, and Maintain socialist ideological subjugation at the international levela fact that increasingly isolates Bolivia.
“Arce is facing his most difficult moment, the result of doubts due to international pressure and loyalty to his program. Arce constantly gives in and is giving Evo Morales more rope and he will not hesitate to use that rope to hang him for good,” said Portugal, adding that if this situation continues, the only way out will be to bring forward elections.
“I don’t see any other way out. Arce, faced with the dilemma of whether to eliminate the subsidy or not, and not even due to pressure from the population or politicians but as an escape from his own government, is going to bring forward the elections,” he added.
“It is an exit government”
Constitutional lawyer Carlos Goitia said that the TCP is now acting with caution with the actions taken by the Government because He saw that it was already in its final phase, that is, it was on its way out. “It no longer made sense” to hold the referendum and consult the people on the subsidy of hydrocarbons, when These economic measures must already be reflected in the financial law, with two months left until the end of the year and for them to be taken into account in the economic projections for next year.
“The TCP has taken this gap into account and has understood that the questions were not viable and has found a flaw in the technical procedure, the pretext for not addressing the underlying issue and returning the questions to the Executive and making this referendum unviable,” said the expert.
For Goitia, the government in the almost four years in power failed to demonstrate that it has the capacity to solve the economic crisis, a fact that is increasingly distancing him from his intention to be re-elected, an intention that, beyond favoring him, is making the conflicts worse. “He must accept that it is a minority government, that its transitional phase has already begun, otherwise he will continue to fuel conflicts that are linked to the shortening of his mandate.”
