This week begins with a warning on Financing Law 2025, a key piece to cover part of the deficit of the General Budget of the Nation (PGN) of 2026, which amounts to $ 557 billion and is still without convincing analysts and various sectors of the economy that point out that it could aggravate the fiscal crisis.
The alert on this occasion came to the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University that announced an analysis according to which, of the $ 26.3 billion in new income that the government projects with this law, $ 7.8 billion would not enter the National Box, as they correspond to taxes to alcohol and tobacco consumption that belong to the departments and the Capital District.
Also read: Keralty talks about the future of EPS Sanitas after government intervention
In other words, about 30% of the tax reform is sustained in resources that do not belong to the Nation, but to territorial entities and that for the Observatory represent not only a technical error, but also a tension factor with the regions.
The analysts in charge of the report indicated that the additional collection plan includes progressive growth, from $ 26.3 billion in 2026 to $ 37 billion in 2030 and highlight that within that amount, the Alcohol and tobacco item would go from $ 7.8 billion to $ 10 billion in that same period.
1 in 3 pesos that would generate the tax reform of the Petro government would not enter the coffers of the Nation.
Chatgpt image
“The critical point is that this collection is not national, since since 1995 it was assigned to the departments and the Capital District through Law 223, and in 2016 it was assigned specific destinations with Law 1816. In 2024, these taxes contributed $ 5.4 billion, equivalent to 43% of the income of the departments. Bogotá received $ 700,000 million, for a national total of $ 6.1 billion. They limited.
The observatory noted that these resources are fundamental because they finance Health, education and sports programs, and in regions with low fiscal capacity such as Chocó, Vichada or La Guajira constitute a true budget pillar and emphasized that hence the inclusion of this item in the accounts of PGN 2026 generates concern.
It may interest you: Mintrabajo orders to paralyze cooking activities from the Andrés DC restaurant in Bogotá
A path that generates doubts
With all of the above, the researchers raised two central questions, starting in case the government converts these taxes into national income to square the accounts? Or, on the contrary, the additional income that really corresponds to the departments will end up applauding the PGN next year?
“In any of the scenarios, the effect is negative. The first would imply ignoring the territorial ownership of these income and the second would confirm that The PGN 2026 is still underlying, because the $ 7.8 billion would never reach the nation, ”they said.
1 in 3 pesos that would generate the tax reform of the Petro government would not enter the coffers of the Nation.
Chatgpt image
On the other hand, the report recalls that alcohol and tobacco consumption taxes have a complex design and a specific destination, since in the case of cigarettes and elaborate tobacco, they combine a specific component of $ 3,725 per pack and $ 297 per gram of bite, plus 10% AD VALEEM on the price to the public.
“These values go up every year with the IPC plus four points; while in the case Of the beers, the rate is 48%, which includes 8% VAT, and 20% for refe and mixtures. The beers with less than 2.5 degrees of alcohol are classified as food and do not pay the tax, ”says the report.
See here: Colombia must prepare a road map to enter Asian markets
For liquors, wines and snacks, a specific lien is applied per degree of alcohol (325 pesos for liquors, 220 pesos for wines) and an AD VALEM of 25% and 20%, respectively; Before which, beyond the technical details, the truth is that part of this collection is directly directed to financing sensitive sectors.
Here it should also be taken into account that in the case of liquors, 37% is used for health and 3% to sport; In beers, 8% goes to health assurance and the hospital network; And in tobacco, resources They are aimed at vulnerable population care and health programs.
1 in 3 pesos that would generate the tax reform of the Petro government would not enter the coffers of the Nation.
Chatgpt image
A justified change?
After counting the state of the income, the Fiscal Observatory indicates that in the exposition of reasons of the financing law, the Government justified the changes with a public health argument, arguing that the consumption of alcohol and tobacco generates high social costs, and the taxes are seen as a cost-effective tool to reduce it.
“Therefore, the reform raises an aggressive redesign in which for alcohol, it is proposed to unify The tax for all drinks, based on the price to the consumer certified by the DANE, raise the AD VALEEM at 30%, set a specific component of 1,000 pesos per alcoholic degree per liter and raise the VAT from 5%to 19%, ”they said.
More information: The agreement with Amazon.com would drive Rappi to the Stock Exchange
They also said that for beer, the generating fact is extended to include alcohol, with a rate of 330 pesos per alcoholic degree in 330 cc plus 30% AD VALEEM. In cigarettes and derivatives, the 10% AD VALEEM is maintained, but the specific component of a pack would rise from 4,068 to 11,200 pesos, while the loose tobacco would go from 324 to 891 pesos per gram.
“In addition, a 2,000 -pesos vapestrative tax per milliliter and an AD VALEEM of 30% departments, recognizing their ownership about the income, ”they said.
1 in 3 pesos that would generate the tax reform of the Petro government would not enter the coffers of the Nation.
Chatgpt image
Thus, the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University warns that such abrupt increases in tariffs can encourage smuggling of liquors and cigarettes and insists that the unclear presentation of the figures remains transparency to the tax debate and increases uncertainty about the true magnitude of the deficit.
Similarly, they put on the table to tell $ 7.8 billion as nationals It is a technical error,
Because these resources will never finance the PGN 2026, so that the deficit will continue to be a problem.
Other news: More and more Colombians seek refuge in the insolvency law
This is why beyond the technical aspect, they suggest a political reading, according to which, the inclusion of these taxes could become a negotiation tool with the regional powers, just in a pre -election year and in the final stretch of the government.
“By presenting as national resources that actually belong to the departments, the Executive would open space for the regions to press for greater transfers or commitments, in an interest game that transcends the merely fiscal, ”they concluded.
That said, once again the solidity of the official accounts is questioned if one takes into account that the 2025 Financing Law, which should contribute $ 26.3 billion to PGN 2026, includes $ 7.8 billion taxes that will not reach the National Box because they are territorial income.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
