The debate on the new tax reform of the Petro government entered a decisive phase after the announcement of the Minister of Finance, Germán Ávila, to adjust the collection goal of $ 26.3 billion to $ 16.3 billion and propose modifications in several of the most controversial taxes such as fuel, beer, showcase of shows and gambling.
While the decision was presented as a gesture of opening towards Congress, with a view to discussing the future of state finances, it failed to turn off the criticism of analysts and legislators who see in the proposal an insufficient effort against the true size of the fiscal deficit.
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For some, such as the former Minister of Finance and current rector of the EIA University, José Manuel Restrepo, the reform has a problem of origin and is that it is poorly conceived, it lacks technical structure and, even with the corrections, does not solve the imbalance in public accounts.
In this sense, Restrepo warns that the real budget deficit amounts to $ 55 billion, Far from the $ 10 billion that the Government proposes to cut and emphasizes that “the adjusted amount is insufficient for a budget that has a minimum imbalance of $ 55 billion. What is needed is a deep adjustment, which goes through reducing waste and excess public spending.”
The tax reform is essential to finance the budget of 2026.
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In its reading, more than a fiscal responsibility effort, the proposal responds to a political strategy focused on maintaining a minimum agreement with the Congress that prevents the amount of the national budget from being denied and thus avoiding that the Executive has to approve it by decree, which ultimately would be equivalent to a “fiscal dictatorship”, since it would prolong the dynamics of inflated expenses without sufficient support of structural income.
Pragmatic, but insufficient adjustment
A different vision, although coincident in the diagnosis, is posed that seeks to soften the most unpopular taxes, including gasoline, beer and shows.
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Arbeláez emphasizes that the government would be giving in magnitude to try to build a consensus that allows it to carry out the project in a year marked by the electoral contest, taking into account that it does not enjoy majority support.
Likewise, he recognizes that this movement reflects some flexibility, but insists that The underlying problem does not disappear, since Colombia continues to have a structural deficit that will not be solved with cuts of $ 10 billion, and the political margin for deep reform is practically non -existent on the eve of elections.
The tax reform is essential to finance the budget of 2026.
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“The reality today is that we cannot ignore what is happening in politics. A great depth reform in a pre -election year is destined to face not only with the opposition, but also with the reserves of the allied sectors that fear the electoral cost,” he says.
For this expert, the real challenge is not to insist on an ambitious financing law, but on building a minimum fiscal pact that involves Congress, businessmen and citizens, which should go through three axes, which are the Austerity in spending, real progressivity in taxes and credibility in the use of public resources.
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“It is not enough to raise taxes or a class struggle speech. The State also has to adjust, spend better and be more austere,” adds Arbeláez and warns that, even with the changes, the middle class remains the great affected by the reform, since the settings in gasoline and services end up moving to the homes, while the perception that “they will only pay the richest” does not correspond to the reality of the articles.
The hottest point: fuels
Beyond political discussion, one of the issues that concentrates the most attention It is that of fuels. There, Sergio Cabrales, professor and researcher of the mining-energy sector, breaks down the figures to show the impact that the proposed adjustments would have and explains that currently, the price of diesel is composed of three elements such as 15% taxes, 64% income of the producer and 21% distribution logistics.
The tax reform is essential to finance the budget of 2026.
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With the reform, the tax burden would jump to 25% of the final price of the diesel, which would result in an increase of 14% in the value of the ACPM gallon and indicate that an increase in this size would not only affect the transporters, but would be transferred to the production chain of food and basic goods, pressing the inflation again and reducing the competitiveness of sectors dependent on
This input.
Finally, in Congress, project resistance remains strong. Senator Efraín Cepeda has been one of the most strong opponents and announced that the reform will vote negatively, since its position is clear and is not willing to endorse more levies to the lower classes, ensuring that “this will not allow it. We find parliamentarians who want to tax the Colombian people and that is unacceptable. ”
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Cepeda also referred to the political management of the procedure in the economic commissions, questioning the quorum rupture that occurred in Chamber to prevent the reduction of $ 26 billion from the budget will be voted. For him, that play responds to the government’s intention to maintain the total amount and have those resources for electoral purposes.
“What does the government want $ 26 billion if last year did not execute $ 80 billion And this year has not executed $ 70?
The tax reform is essential to finance the budget of 2026.
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Between will and credibility
Analysts agree that the government’s opening to review some points is a step in the right direction, but insufficient against the size of the fiscal hole if one takes into account that the figure of $ 55 billion indicated by Restrepo as a real deficit becomes the inevitable reference to evaluate the magnitude of the effort.
In parallel, the insistence on maintaining taxes that affect fuels, beer and shows It raises doubts about the capacity of the reform of being truly progressive.
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Thus, the tax reform of the Petro government faces technical and political criticisms that converge at the same point and is the need for greater austerity and realism against deficit, since the adjustments announced by Minister Ávila can be interpreted as a sign of willingness to dialogue, but do not reach to respond to the size of the tax challenge.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
