But experts warn that the measure will increase popular consumption, will reduce competitiveness to productive chains that depend on Asian inputs and scare foreign investments, with the risk of also facing Beijing reprisals. The coup points clearly to China. It is the second partner in imports from Mexico, with a 20.4% participation and a value of 129,457 million dollars.
The Ministry of Economy included in the list other countries without treaty that, although they do not reach China’s magnitude in Mexican imports, they will also be subject to new tariffs. South Korea concentrates 3.62%of external purchases, India 1.41%, Thailand 1.70%, Türkiye 0.33%, Indonesia 0.52%and Russia 0.26%.
The adjustment raises the taxes to an average of 33.8%, almost double the current level of 16.1%. In some sectors, such as auto parts, light cars, textiles, clothing, footwear, steel and appliances, rates will reach 50%, this if the initiative is approved. The strategy, maintains the Ministry of Economy, seeks to protect 325,000 jobs in Nuevo León, Jalisco, State of Mexico, Mexico City and Querétaro, as well as generating conditions for industries with potential not to lose ground compared to what they qualify as unfair competition.
The changes respect the international commitments of Mexico and conform to the most favored nation principle of the World Trade Organization. In addition, he linked the announcement with the strategy of development poles for well -being, which seeks to detonate new industries such as pharmaceutical, semiconductors, electronics and microelectronics.
But the weapon looks double -edged. Andrés Díaz Bedolla, CEO of Yumari and foreign trade expert, warns that tariffs do not generate productive capacity alone. “Not because the doors are closed to the Chinese product means that Mexico can immediately meet local demand,” he said. For the specialist, the absence of clear technological transfer policies, industrial modernization and talent training makes it unfeasible to replace imports with national supply in the short term.
Díaz recalled that Chinese products arrive with subsidies that range from 40 to 60% according to the category, which complicates to establish a tariff that really compensates for that distortion. In addition, he warned that foreign companies installed in Mexico face a complex panorama.
For any investor it is crucial to integrate its supply chain, and if they suddenly make access to supplies, their operation is complicated. The consequence is loss of competitiveness, capital exit and brake on new investments
Andrés Díaz Bedolla, Yumari CEO
We already saw it: the textile decree entered into force overnight on December 19, and the suspension of temporary imports of footwear, a few weeks ago. In a matter of days there were alerts in customs to stop crossing products. That is, it is already happening. The message that is sent is to stop the massive arrival of subsidized products from Asia, but without measuring the consequences. “It may be that Mexico is shot in the foot.”
Ignacio Martínez, coordinator of the Laboratory of Analysis in Commerce, Economics and Business of the UNAM, stressed that the initiative reflects a turn in Mexican tariff policy after almost 30 years without changes and responds, to a large extent, to pressures from the United States.
The strategy is concentrated in steel, clothing and footwear, but does not play products with high technological added value, which are the majority of China export to Mexico
Ignacio Martínez, coordinator of the Laboratory of Analysis in Commerce, Economics and Business of the UNAM
Martínez warned that the measure sends delicate signals to Beijing. China modified its Foreign Trade Law and has a margin to respond with mirror tariffs. “If Mexico rises taxes, it is almost certain that China will replicate. This happened with the United States in recent years.” Although the direct impact would be lower because Mexico exports little to the Asian giant (9,937 million dollars), rather reprisals may feel more in investment or financing projects.
The specialist also warned that the weight of the adjustment will fall on the homes that perceive between one and three minimum wages, mainly in dress and footwear, taking into consideration that they are consumer goods that are demanded immediately.
Protectionism is spread
The Mexican measure is part of a global trend of greater protectionism. The United States raised tariffs to a wide range of Chinese products, and Europe debate similar measures. Mexico decided to align with that current, but with particular risks.
It is understandable to seek to get fashionable to increase tariffs. This is doing the United States with the rest of the world. And an international avalanche is likely to come
Enrique Dussel Peters, coordinator of the Chinese-Mexico Studies Center of the Faculty of Economics of the UNAM.
But the country specialized in a maquila and re -export model that depends on foreign supplies. Between 60% and 70% of Mexican imports come from international companies, many Americans, who use Chinese supplies to export to their own market. Taxing these products can reduce competitiveness to the chains installed in Mexico and cause a double tariff impact, first in Mexico and then in the United States.
The great importers of Chinese products are not Chinese firms, he says, but corporations such as General Motors or Ford, who find competitive prices, quality and delivery times in China. If Mexico rises tariffs, it will directly affect these companies, many of which export to the United States. With a double tariff – in Mexico and in the United States – its viability will be questioned, explains Dussel Peters.
The dilemma is to protect the national industry or make production and consumption more expensive. “The risk is that the remedy is worse than the disease.”
