As the second round of elections, scheduled for November 24, approaches, Uruguayans show a competitive preference for candidates. According to a recent Consulting Teams survey, Yamandú Orsi tops the list with 45% support; while Álvaro Delgado follows closely with 41%. 6% of those surveyed indicated that they intend to vote blank or cancel their vote, and 8% are undecided about their choice.
The survey, carried out between November 2 and 11, includes a universe of 1,000 Uruguayan citizens over 18 years of age. With a margin of error of approximately 3.1% and a confidence level of 95%reliable data on current preferences is offered.
The results show that, as expected, the majority of those who voted for the Wide Front In the first round they lean towards Orsi, while National Party voters favor Delgado. However, 2% of these voters are undecided regarding their choice.
Party preferences and undecided: Is there a vote drain?
In the Colorado Party electorate, high retention is observed towards the Coalition, although some voters show a slight inclination towards Orsi. Of the Colorado voters who expressed themselves in the first round, 12% would opt for Delgado, while 1% would lean towards Orsi.
Furthermore, there is a 1% who plan to vote blank or null and 2% who remain undecided. This dynamic highlights the importance of each vote in a race where the numbers are tight and each preference counts.
As for other parties, such as Cabildo Abierto and the Independent Party, there are no significant changes in support towards Orsi, but there is no total retention towards Delgado either.
In this category, 2% are expected to opt for Delgado, 1% will vote blank or null and 1% will remain undecided. Furthermore, it is important to note that a considerable number of voters who are currently leaning toward one candidate are not completely decided. Of the 45% who would vote for Orsi, only 41% say they are “totally decided.”
Beyond the indecision, it is evident that the 4-point difference between Orsi and Delgado may be tighter than the results suggestconsidering the margin of error. Furthermore, it stands out that among the undecided, there is a greater number of voters who supported Coalition parties in the first round (5%) than those of the Frente Amplio (2%). This suggests that if both blocs manage to retain their voters, the gap could be significantly reduced, making voter migration and retention crucial in this final stretch.
