A study by the National Biorenewables Laboratory of the National Center for Research in Energy and Materials (CNPEM) projects that climate change could cause a drop in Brazilian sugarcane production of up to 20% over the next ten years. 
The decline, according to the research, would have a similarly drastic effect on the fuel ethanol market and the biofuels sector in Brazil. The country is a world leader in the production and consumption of biofuels.
According to the survey, the reduction in the amount and frequency of rainfall is identified as the main factor detrimental to the development of sugarcane, even surpassing the rise in temperatures.
“The projection was possible thanks to agroclimatic modeling techniques. The researchers analyzed historical climate data and performed simulations considering variables to estimate what could happen, in the coming years, with sugarcane crops in the Center-South region of Brazil,” highlighted CNPEM, in a note.
Climate data
The region studied covers the states of São Paulo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, which currently produce 90% of the country’s sugarcane. The research used climate data from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and adopted the model Crop Assessment Tooldeveloped by CNPEM, to discover how climate change can affect sugarcane productivity.
“The drop in production has already begun to be felt and could worsen if actions are not taken to mitigate environmental impacts. The National Supply Company (Conab) estimates a 3.8% reduction in the 2024/2025 harvest, as a result of low rainfall and high temperatures in the Center-South region,” the research highlights.
The main participant in the study, agricultural engineer Gabriel Petrielli, warns that the decrease in sugarcane production could cause a sharp drop in revenue in the sector.
“The decline in sugarcane productivity could lead to a reduction in CBIO revenue of around US$1.9 million for every billion liters of ethanol produced, resulting in a loss of revenue in the sector of around US$60 million annually,” he highlights.
