He pension payment that will be made in 2025 represents 23% of the entire budget that is planned, which is 9.22 billion pesos.
The cost of pensions has been increasing in recent years due to the aging of the population and specialists have warned that it is a time bomb that will continue to consume resources, which is why it is urgent to make collection more efficient and improve the schemes. of pensions.
For the case of cost of debtthe government estimates a expenditure of 1.39 billion pesoswhich represents 15% of the total money that is scheduled for spending. With this, it is estimated that the debt will be 51.4% of GDP, a figure with which analysts do not agree.
“Also considering our exchange rate estimate, we project the net broad public debt at 53.7% of GDP at the end of next year, 2.3 percentage points of GDP above the Treasury estimate,” Citibanamex noted.
The bank considered that the stabilization of public debt for 2025 onwards is based on questionable elements in terms of feasibility.
In addition, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government requested an increase in the debt ceiling of 1.5 trillion pesos to meet its obligations.
About the federal holdingswhich are resources that the Federation transfers to the states and that the state authorities exercise freely in the production of goods and services that they consider necessary, the expenditures that the government will make are 1.3 billion pesoswhich represents a 3.7% more than what was approved in 2024.
They call for tax reform
BBVA Research highlighted that in the face of a “predictable fragility” in public finances due to the high cost of social programs, support for Pemex, and the deterioration of infrastructure. As well as the cost of debt and pensions, a tax reform is required to increase tax revenues.
In recent days, the Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, said that “there is total awareness in the government at the highest level of what the reality of resources is,” which gave signs that a tax reform could be near .
BBVA highlighted that the fact that the government has already shown signs of discussion is a positive sign. “It would be even more desirable for this reform to be far-reaching, seek to reduce informality and contemplate greater efficiency in the execution of public spending,” he noted.
For its part, Citibanamex highlighted that the decision to postpone the tax reform helps the government fulfill a campaign commitment that there would be no tax reform in the first year, increases the risk for the country’s variables, causing changes in the perspective of the debt.
“We estimate that country risk variables will remain high and that rating agencies will continue to change the outlook for sovereign debt from stable to negative,” he said.
Last week, one day before the presentation of the 2025 Economic Package, Moody’s lowers Mexico outlook to “negative” from stable.
