The consensus of analysts again cut for the fifth consecutive occasion its prognosis of Growth for Mexico In 2025, from 0.3% to 0.2%, according to the most recent CITI Survey of Expectations.
The growth range predicted by the specialists consulted in the April edition was -0.7% to 0.8%, which means that there are analysts that not only see a zero growth of the Mexican economy in this year, but even a fall of almost 1.0 percent.
By 2026, analysts maintained their prognosis that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico will grow 1.5 percent.
50 PB cut in May
Regarding the next announcement of monetary policy of the Bank of Mexico (which will be announced on May 15), the Consensus of analysts continues to anticipate a 50 -dotted cut to the reference rate, which would remain at 8.50 percent.
Of the 36 participants in the survey, 34 predicted a 50 -points base cut in May, but there were two who said they wait for a cut of only 25 points.
“The medium prognosis of the monetary policy rate by the end of 2025 was reduced to 7.75%, 25 base points less compared to the previous survey, with estimates in the range of 6.25%to 8.25%,” said Citi.
While by the end of 2026, the median expectation remained unchanged at 7.00%, according to the survey.
Inflation remains stable
The Inflation expectations for the closing of this year and the following remained stable. The projections for general inflation in the late 2025 remained at 3.78%, while, for the underlying component, they increased slightly to 3.80%, from 3.76%of the previous survey.
“By the end of 2026, the medium estimation for general inflation is 3.79%, higher than in the last survey at 3.78%, while the medium estimation for underlying inflation remained at 3.70%, as in the previous fortnight,” he said Citi.
Regarding the exchange rate, the consensus projects that the dollar closes 2025 in 20.93 pesos, three cents more than in the last survey, and in 2026 in 21.20 pesos, 10 cents less than in the previous edition.
