The new thick campaign 2022-2023 is just a few weeks away from starting with the sowing of early corn, in a context in which specialists envision a change in the trend in the production scheme, in which soybeans, for for the first time in six years, increase its area, to the detriment of corn, which would retreat after eight expansion cycles.
Although the first coarse grain that began to be implanted was the sunflower, which at this point has already planted 10% of its estimated area, soybeans and corn are considered the most important, because they occupy more than 90% of the surface area and account for 95% of the volume.
According to the first estimates, This year, soybeans would once again gain prominence thanks to a larger area, in a context where production costs had sharp rises and grain prices, although they remain at good levels.marked increases lower than those of inputs.
The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) projected that the oilseed will increase its area by 700,000 hectares compared to last season, up to 16.8 million hectares,
“From the 2015/2016 campaign to 2021/22, the oilseed was losing almost 20% of the planted area. In 2022 the trend would reverse, soybeans will rise again,” the entity anticipated a few months ago.
“From the 2015/2016 campaign to 2021/22, the oilseed was losing almost 20% of the planted area. In 2022 the trend would reverse, soybeans rise again”
Based on this occupied area, discounting 400,000 hectares that could be lost or not harvested, the BCR calculated that production would reach 47 million tons, 4.8 million tons above the previous campaign.
In a dialogue with Télam, the analyst at the AZ Group consultancy, Lorena D’Angelo, indicated that this advance of the oilseed “is given in the implantation cost compared to its competitor, corn, since planting this represents an investment 35% to 40% lower than that of cereal, taking the core area as a reference“.
If these estimates materialize, the increase in the projected planting area “would cut a streak of six consecutive years with a fall in the area at the national level dedicated to oilseeds, after the 2021/22 cycle saw the smallest area planted in the last 15 years. D’Angelo said.
However, the specialist acknowledged that there is “uncertainty in the number of production that can finally be obtained as a result of the La Niña year forecasts that are available for the campaign”understanding that the climatic future “is the limitation that can be found in the next cycle”.
“The good prospects of the oilseed respond to the lower investment made by the producer to plant it, but continues with the impact of the policies that limit growth from receiving lower prices than soybean producers in other parts of the world (pro withholdings and exchange gap). If the prices of the Argentine oilseed were at the level of international values, the productive explosion would be unimaginable”, concluded D’Angelo.
For its part, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA) projected a drop in the area for corn of 2.6% (200,000 hectares) to 7.5 million hectares.
Among the main reasons, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange pointed out “the variability of the yields collected during the previous cycle, a very tight level of reserves at the beginning of the early cereal sowing window, a more unfavorable input/output ratio in relation to past campaigns and a significant increase in costs”.
For the president of the Argentine Corn and Sorghum Association (Maizar), Pedro Vigneau, it will be difficult to reverse the negative projection due to the lack of financing.
“Today there is not much financing and corn cultivation has a greater need per hectare and that conspires a bit”Vigneau said.
Specialists agree that corn requires a considerably higher technological package than soybeans, especially with regard to fertilization.
“However, we also know about the nobility of the crop and that is clear to the producer, since it is key as a rotation head, especially in carbon capture and, with the issue of the systemic look, it is difficult to avoid rotations”, for which he assured that it is necessary “to strongly defend high-tech production packages”, concluded Vigneau.
Regarding prices, the head of the Market Analysis Department of the Grassi brokerage, Ariel Tejera, noted that in the case of soybeans “we are 15% below the best values achieved in the year in the Chicago market”, while at the local level “prices were quite punished”.
“But looking ahead to the new campaign, May values show a good level given this time of year. In any case, they gravitate well below the maximums seen between March and June of this yearTejera pointed out.
On the corn side, the specialist indicated that in the reference world market, the yellow grain “has suffered a considerable decrease, more than 20% compared to the April highs.”
On the local term market, the price stands at US$220 per ton, which “in historical terms, is a good value for the new campaign, given this time of year,” but “it would be lower than the prices reached by the market this year, between March and April”, concluded Tejera.