After the pandemic, Colombia is aging at a faster rate and due to this, according to Dane calculations, it is expected that in just over four decades, five out of every 10 people in the national territory will be over 50 years old. , which would be reversing the population pyramid.
These changes in the social composition of the country will lead to fronts of the economy such as the labor market, the pension system and even consumption dynamics, being managed in a different way than is done today, since there will be fewer people producing and many more those that demand aid and consumption; both at the subsidy level and at the level of goods and services in the market.
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An example of the reality that is being conjured has been discussed a lot with pensions and the change that is coming thanks to the reform approved by Congress. According to Fedesarrollo accounts, currently the potentially active population is 58.5%; while that the dependent is only 19.44% and of this last percentage, 40% are older adults.
By 2050, these values of the dependent population would remain at 36.3% of young people and 63.7% of older adults; Therefore, it is expected that as time goes by, more older adults will need assistance from the State, while the productive apparatus becomes smaller and smaller, since fewer young people will enter the labor market and will make the pension model unsustainable. is creating.
Longevity
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“Colombia is experiencing an age recomposition, with a significant increase in the proportion of older people. By 2050, it is expected that 25.9% of the population will be 60 years old or older, which will increase the aging rate and change the demographic structure,” these analysts indicated.
At this point it must be taken into account that this change in the population pyramid is a product of the drop in births, both by decision of the new generations, and by the high rate of young people who do not want to have children; which must also be computed with the increase in life expectancy.
Three fronts to review
With all the aforementioned, it is worth bringing up three studies from the Universidad del Rosario that raise the challenges to be taken into account with the generational change that the country is undergoing, starting because, according to them, We are facing a pension system that does not guarantee access to a retirement.
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“The Colombian pension system fails to guarantee a pension to the majority of adults who have reached retirement age. By 2023, only 21.33% of people of pension age (57 years in the case of women and 62 years in the case of men) were pensioned, which represents a decrease of 8% compared to to 2021”, they noted.
If we add to this that Colombia recently fell in the Natixis index of retirement prospects, where it was noted that social inequality also plays against those who wish to achieve a decent pension, and reinforces the thesis that the lack of labor and pension income in old age is strongly associated with conditions of economic dependency, generating an alert to take into account.
According to the Large Integrated Household Survey, between January and June 2023, in Colombia there are 7.6 million older adults, of which 45% are men and 55% are women. Among the main cities, Barranquilla is the city with the lowest aging rate (39.6%), while Medellín has a higher prevalence of the elderly population (65.8%).
The concerns that older adults have when they decide not to have children.
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Silver economy
Assuming that the pension system may not be sufficient In the future, if the current scheme is maintained, and that alternatives must be sought to support the loss of productivity that would occur with the change in the population pyramid, the reports from the Universidad del Rosario suggest revising towards the silver economy, highlighting that there There is a potential that has not been seen, beyond consumption.
“The silver economy refers to the rapid demographic change produced by the aging of the population. Its main focus is to address the needs of older adults in different dimensions: health, employment, entrepreneurship, savings and financing, education, productivity, among others,” they explained.
In this way, currently in the world there are different success stories in the world where employment platforms have been developed to connect companies and to older adults to provide flexible, low-skilled and stable paid jobs.
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This, if we take into account that 2 out of every 10 older adults reach a pension and that of this same population 42% seek entrepreneurship or scavenging as a subsistence alternative, it opens the door to creating regulations that allow these people supply with your work that productivity that will be needed.
“This reveals an opportunity, since through training “It is possible to reduce the frictions that affect the insertion of older people into the labor market, which must also be accompanied by greater knowledge of employment programs for this population, which most companies do not know about,” they said from the University. .
Old age
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Finally, experts recommend also reviewing the well-being indicator, emphasizing that it is evident that population aging implies different challenges, specifically on fronts such as health, work and income; which is where the greatest deterioration is currently evident for older adults.
That said, they closed by indicating that taking into account that the population will be increasingly older and more active, this represents a key opportunity to redesign strategies that promote active and productive aging.
