Although it is a program that is not dedicated exclusively to the T-MEC, it is the treaty that matters most to Mexico due to its implication in its exports and the economy, so its continuity is vital; In the own words of the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, it is a negotiation that has agreed a lot.
Of the total exports that Mexico makes to the world, 87% correspond to North America, with its T-MEC partners, the United States and Canada, but the former is of greater weight.
Data from the Bank of Mexico indicate that between January and September of this year, the country’s exports totaled 455,717 million dollars, of which 393,069 million are from North America.
Of these 393,069 million dollars, 379,181 million are thanks to the United States and only 13,888 million to Canada.
One of the priorities of the Sheinbaum government is to consolidate Mexico as the largest exporter to the United States, but also the one that imports the most products, for which the T-MEC is a fundamental piece.
Even in the president’s 100 commitments, it is highlighted that the countries of the T-MEC zone trade 3.1 million dollars with each other every minute.
The T-MEC is important, but the fiscal deficit is more important
In 2025, the Ministry of Economy will begin formal work towards the review of the T-MEC, which will be in 2026, as stated by Ebrard, who is aware that, in general, the Ministry of Economy will have to work next year with fewer resources and with many tasks, but the most important thing is to help reduce the fiscal deficit.
“We couldn’t even oppose it, first because we have to meet the deficit goal, if we don’t meet the deficit goal we will get into trouble, we have to contribute the same as all the other agencies,” the head of the Economy mentioned just a few days ago.
The total budget anticipated in 2025 for the agency headed by Ebrard is 3,597 million pesos, a 12.9% cut in real terms compared to what was approved for this year.
Víctor Gómez Ayala, director of data analytics at the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), pointed out that the ideal is for the Ministry of Economy to have more resources for the review and a well-prepared team, since in the last administration it was dismantled to the T-MEC negotiating team.
But the expert also agrees that fiscal consolidation is urgent, and in the absence of a reform on the matter that increases the resources of the federal government, the only alternative is to cut spending on many activities that are critical.
Ayala indicated that in principle he does not see much impact from the lower budget in 2025, since at least in the first months, trade issues will most likely be discussed at the level of high-level conversation.
But from now on, many voices project that the review of the treaty with the United States and Canada will not be easy with Trump, who from the start already showed that it could become a renegotiation.
Rating agencies, such as Fitch and Moody’s, warn about Trump’s foreign trade policy that, with its protectionist approach, can significantly affect Mexico and that the review of the T-MEC can increase trade barriers, and if the threats come true of tariffs, the country may enter a recession in 2025 with falls in production, affected by the reduction in its trade.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Trump Risk Index places Mexico as the most exposed in trade this because of the risks that the policies of the president-elect of the United States would imply, especially because the country has been identified as China’s back door.
Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez, Undersecretary of Foreign Trade and who is a key figure for the review of the T-MEC, declared that in the United States there is a “schizophrenia” regarding the issue of China, which is also beginning to be seen in Canada. .
But from the Ministry of Economy, when reviewing the numbers, 70% of imports from Mexico to China are not made by Mexican companies, they are foreign companies.
The challenges for Mexico towards the review are visible, but what makes it confident of success is the size of the trade, it is one of the most important flows, since North America participates in almost a quarter of world trade.
