The Services Confidence Index (ICS) dropped 1.5 points in December, going to 92.2 points, the lowest level since February 2021 (89.2 points). The indicator fell for the third consecutive month, accumulating a loss of 9.5 points in the fourth quarter of 2022. In quarterly moving averages, the ICS also retreated 3.2 points. The numbers were disclosed today (29), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV).
According to the economist at Ibre/FGV, Rodolpho Tobler, the service sector’s confidence fell again in December and ends the last quarter of the year, returning the gains obtained in the second and third quarters of this year.
“The deterioration in the month was influenced by the perception of a slowdown in the pace of services and the worsening of the outlook for the coming months. In addition, the spread between segments confirms this more negative moment and suggests a deceleration of activity that tends to extend into the beginning of next year”, said the economist.
Influence
In December, the ICS result was influenced mainly by the worsening of evaluations on the current situation, but also by expectations for the coming months. The Current Situation Index (ISA-CST) fell 2.6 points to 94.3 points, the lowest level since March (90.9 points). According to the FGV, this result was influenced both by the worsening of the indicator that measures the volume of current demand, which fell by 2.8 points, to 93.8 points, and by the indicator of the current situation of business, which fell by 2.3 points, to 94 ,8 points. Both return to the lowest level since March this year.
According to the survey, the Expectations Index (EI-S) dropped 0.6 points to 90.1 points, the lowest level since April 2021 (88.7 points). The two components of the index also fell: the indicator that measures forecast demand in the next three months changed -0.3 points, to 91.2 points, and the indicator of business trends in the next six months fell by 0.8 points, to 89.2 points.
quarterly confidence
Throughout the year, service trust alternated pace. In the first quarter, it recorded a drop that seemed very much associated with a new wave of the covid-19 pandemic.
“With the greatest control [da pandemia], confidence advanced in the following quarters with a good influence of services provided to families and the transport segment, precisely those that had been most affected by traffic restrictions. In the last quarter of the year, the deceleration appears to be quite widespread among the segments, returning part of what was recovered in the middle of the year”, said Ibre/FGV.
