With the confirmation of candidates for Senate For the elections of October 26, a new stage of political speculation on the future of the Argentine Congress began.
The legislative replacement that will take Senatewhere no one will have their own quorum and the third blocker becomes a key tool to condition transcendental decisions.
The ruling party, headed by La Libertad advancesaspires to triple its representation in the Senate. It currently has six senators, after the departure and later informal return of the Formoseño Francisco Paoltroni, and projects to reach between 17 and 18 “pure” benches.
To achieve this, it is committed to adding representatives in provinces such as Entre Ríos, Chaco, Neuquén, Río Negro, Santiago del Estero, Salta, Tierra del Fuego and the City of Buenos Aires. However, even in the best scenario, it would not reach the necessary third (24 of 72) to hold presidential vetoes or to decisively influence key voting such as the appointment of judges of the Supreme Court.
This forces the ruling party to negotiate with provincial blocks and governors who do not align completely either with the government or with Kirchnerism. For its part, Kirchnerism faces an electoral setback, but retains a strategic position.
It currently has 34 senators, just three from the quorum, and although it would lose benches in some provinces, its goal is to retain at least 26 seats, which would allow it to keep the third blocker. This number is sufficient to stop initiatives that require special majorities, such as constitutional reforms or judicial appointments.
Scenery
The figure of José Mayans, head of the everyone’s front block, remains central to the containment strategy. In addition, two former governors reappear, which reinforces the territorial profile of space, although with less national weight than in previous cycles.
In this scenario of fragmentation, the governors of the “medium”, those who do not respond to La Libertad advances nor to Kirchnerism, they seek to become arbitrators of the quorum. In 2024, the formation of a block of nine independent provincial senators was promised, but after comings and turns, that number was reduced to five. Even so, his role could be decisive in future negotiations.
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