The economy grew 4% in 2021, not half the decline during the pandemic. Women and peasants are the main excluded from this growth.
As of November 2020, the pandemic had caused the loss of more than 800,000 suitable jobs, that is, jobs with at least $ 400 in monthly income. As of November 2021, around 530,000 of those were recovered jobs lost; but the national economy is still far from 2019 levels.
The relative recovery over the past year was based on a increase of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around 4%; however, that increase it also does not cover the drop of almost 8% during the first onslaught of the health crisis.
Moreover, according to Hanns Soledispa, director of the consulting company Exponential Research, if compared to the GDP of two years ago, the Ecuadorian economy is 4.1% below the pre-levels. COVID-19.
In addition, the sectors that underpinned the increase during 2021 they are the least job they generate. In other words, Ecuador has experienced a phenomenon called rebound after a deep fall; but supported by external conditions rather than a substantial improvement in the domestic market.
Thus, the main winners in the past year were mines and quarries with an increase of 40%, supported by the best prices of minerals; oil refining with an increase of 22.7%, supported by the higher international value of a barrel of crude oil; fishing and aquaculture with a growth of 11.9%; and processing and conservation of aquatic products with an improvement of 12.9%.
But these sectors, together, are responsible for just 1.3% of the job national.
On the other hand, agriculture, which generates 27% of jobs, grew 1.5%; while construction, which is responsible for almost 5% of the job, fell more than 4%.
Likewise, with improvements of less than 10%, after a fall of more than 20%, are other important sectors such as commerce and food and accommodation services.
In this context, the recovery in household consumption and in the generation of suitable jobs they can be a mirage, which will be diluted in a short time, if better conditions are not promoted in the sectors that produce more opportunities for the labor market.
Promises versus reality
To meet your goal of 2 million jobs quality until 2025, the Government of Guillermo Lasso must create at least 500,000 new jobs during this year 2022.
Andrés Mideros, dean of the Faculty of Economics at the Catholic University, explained that the situation becomes more complex if it is analyzed that the levels of informality are maintained, and that the greatest beneficiaries of the relative improvement in the labor market are men within the cities.
Those excluded from economic recovery continue to be women and peasants. This reality not only that can undermine the possibilities of increase in the future, but may be a source of greater political and social conflict.
One of Lasso’s bets to reverse the abandonment of the field for more than 14 years are the 1% credits and a 30-year term. However, everything will depend on how efficiently the financing is delivered and that technical advice is given to small producers so that the money is used in the best possible way.
In the first case, the president has ensured that a process that is as bureaucratic as possible has been established; But in the second case, the Government has ruled out monitoring and follow-up, so the results are uncertain. (JS)
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