The decline in inflation in September brought a surprise to investors in the country’s most traditional financial investments. For the first time in two years, the savings account stopped losing inflation.
In September, the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) turned negative by 0.29%, as announced yesterday (11) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In 12 months, official inflation accumulates 7.17%.
According to the Citizen’s Calculator, available at Central Bank (BC) website , an application in the savings account yielded 7.27% in 12 months. The value considers an application made on October 11 of last year and that was not changed until yesterday.
The last time savings had exceeded inflation was in August 2020, when the passbook had yielded 0.45% above the IPCA in 12 months. Since then, the combination of high inflation and low interest rates has eroded the income of the most popular investment in the country. The worst moment occurred in October 2021, when the investor lost 7.59% against inflation in the 12-month period.
From March 2021 to August this year, the BC raised the Selic rate (basic interest rates) from 2% to 13.75% per year. The IPCA, which until July this year surpassed the double digits in the accumulated in 12 months, retreated after three consecutive deflations caused mainly by the cut in taxes on fuel, energy, telecommunications and public transport. These two factors gradually reversed the loss of savings to inflation.
perspectives
Currently, savings yield 6.17% per year plus the Reference Rate (TR). This rule applies when the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year, which has been happening since December last year. When basic interest rates are below this level, savings earn 70% of the Selic.
In the coming months, savings will continue to gain from inflation. In the latest edition of the Focus bulletin, a weekly survey of investors released by the Central Bank, market analysts predicted that the IPCA should close 2022 at 5.71%. As the Focus bulletin also predicts that the Selic rate will end 2022 at 13.75% per year, the booklet will continue to yield around 7.5% in the 12-month period.
The improvement in income should help to contain the record drain of resources from savings observed this year. From January to September, Brazilians withdrew R$91.07 billion more from financial investments than they deposited. Just last month, net withdrawal (difference between deposits and withdrawals) reached BRL 5.9 billion.
