MIAMI, United States. – Popular Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera warned about the high probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea in the coming days. “There is a very active tropical wave that is in the seas south of Jamaica and is advancing through the western Caribbean Sea,” the expert noted on his YouTube channel.
He also added that this situation could lead “within a few hours to the formation of a tropical cyclone.”
According to Rubiera, current conditions favor this development. “There is a lot of heat, a lot of caloric content in the western Caribbean Sea; Also the winds in the upper atmosphere are weak and there is a high humidity content,” he explained. Such conditions are ideal for the formation of tropical cyclones, even in the month of November, he stressed.
Weather forecast models agree on this prediction. “The GFS, a very good North American global model, shows a hurricane northeast of Nicaragua,” Rubiera said. “The European model, in my opinion one of the best in the world, also produces a tropical cyclone in the same place, although not as intense.”
In addition, the specialist mentioned that the German ICON model presents similar results. “When three very good models are giving the same thing, there is a high probability that this will happen,” he said.
Rubiera highlighted that, after forming, the cyclone could stop in its movement. “It will remain oscillating almost stationary in the same area for two, perhaps three days,” he said. Subsequently, it could move in a northwesterly direction, “between Yucatán and the Cuban province of Pinar del Río, Yucatán channel.” However, he warned that “this may vary” due to the anticipation of several days.
Finally, Rubiera urged the population to stay informed: “We must carefully observe the meteorological situation in the western Caribbean Sea. The most likely thing, with high probability, is that a tropical cyclone will form there and it should be the object of our attention in the entire western Caribbean area, in Central America, Yucatan and Cuba during the next few days.
For its part, the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a bulletin at 7:00 am this Wednesday in which it indicates that “a broad area of low pressure over the center of the Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.”
The NHC reported that “environmental conditions are conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two days as the system slowly moves westward.”
The scientific entity also indicated that there is a high probability, 90%, of the formation of a tropical cyclone both in the next 48 hours and in the next seven days. “Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system,” he warned. In addition, he anticipated “heavy rains over Jamaica over the next day or two.”
