The Venezuelan economist Dany Bahar, director of the Center for Global Development program, presented a study that suggests that Venezuelan migration to the United States increases when Venezuelan oil revenues also increase. Bahaha explains that this is because emigration is expensive and that people with more income can afford the trip, and also to the fact that the perception of a strong regime, fed by oil revenues, can generate a sense of hopelessness that drives migration
In a recent edition of #Nochad, the Venezuelan economist Dany Bahar, director of the Center for Global Development program, presented the results of a recent study made together with economist Ricardo Haussman who challenges the notion that the elimination of licenses to the Venezuelan oil industry can boost migration.
Bahar, together with Ricardo Hausman, analyzed the relationship between the oil revenues of Venezuela and migratory flows to the United States. His findings, based on time series data between 2020 and 2024, revealed a positive correlation: “The more oil income Venezuela has, we see an increase in migration,” said Bahar.
This conclusion, which might seem counterfit, is explained by two factors, according to the interviewee. On the one hand, the cost of migration: «Emigration is expensive. Not only emotionally, but also from the point of view of resources, ”said Bahar. Sometimes, when people have more income, it is when they decide to emigrate, since it has the necessary resources to face the trip.
On the other hand, the perception of the government’s force: “Venezuelans facing a regime like the one we are facing, they decide to leave when they lose hope that there will be a change,” Bahar said. The perception of a strong regime, fed by oil revenues, can generate a feeling of hopelessness that drives migration, he added. “While it has more oil income, they are stronger because they can control the crisis a little more, they can use those resources for repression.”
The study of Bahar and Hausman has been the subject of debate, with some experts questioning his methodology. Francisco Rodríguezfor example, found an error in the statistical software code used, which led to a slight modification in some results. However, Bahar ensures that the main conclusion remains: “We continue to have the same conclusion,” he said.
Bahaha also recognizes that the study focuses on a specific factor (the Push factor) and that migration is a complex phenomenon with multiple causes. «We are very careful in the words we use. This does not mean that this is the only thing that explains the entire migratory flow, ”he said.
As for the future of Venezuelan migration, Bahar expressed concern about the restrictive policies of the United States, which he considers “extremely cruel” and “ridiculous.” “We are seeing a government, a Trump administration, extremely cruel, closing these spaces, forcing people or asking people to self -support, which is really ridiculous,” he lamented.
To Bahar, the integration of Venezuelans into the receiving countries is crucial, not only for their well -being, but also for the future of Venezuela. “That Venezuelans integrate where they are, it is a situation to win, win,” he said.
In this regard, the case of Colombia stands out, where integration policies have had positive results, such as the increase in entrepreneurship rates among Venezuelans. «We have seen for example that Venezuelans increase their entrepreneurship rates that Venezuelans significantly. I think our result goes to a factor of 10, increase the creation of companies by a factor of 10, ”he said.
To Bahar, research on Venezuelan migration must focus on integration policies, demonstrating its benefits for receiving countries and Venezuela itself. “The great challenge is to demonstrate with research the enormous benefits that countries have when they have active migrant integration policies,” he concluded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxombgaeqgy
*Also read: relatives of deportees to El Salvador ask Maduro: What answers do we have?
Post views: 436
