He Eighth Retreat of pension funds managed by the AFPs, which would generate a divestment of around S/31,613 million by these companies would negatively affect the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL)according to a rental report4 SAB.
“The approval of a new pension withdrawal is emerging as a disruptive event for the Peruvian capital market. The flow of exits could amount to S/26,000 million (although the SBS expects it to be greater), which is equivalent to 22% of the assets under administration of the AFP and about 2% of the GDP. The magnitude reflects not only an immediate blow to the liquidity, but also a progressive wear of the progressive wear of the foresee as a long -term savings source, ”said the stock market broker.
He affirmed that as has happened in the previous retreats, the AFPs usually prioritize as a strategy to comply with this provision, the liquidation of more liquid assets – sovereign bones and international mutual funds, which together represent almost half (49%) of the portfolios.
He warned that it is unrealistic to assume that the rest of the assets will be on the sidelines. Since, in previous episodes, it was evidenced that less liquid instruments, particularly local actions end up affected by the need for recipeil and risk management.
According to rent4, the above is due to the fact that if the withdrawals are financed only with the divestment in liquid assets, the participation of the local variable income in the AFP portfolio would automatically increase to about 20% of the portfolios, when it is currently 15%. With which, this imbalance could lead to these managers to make more tactical decisions: “reduce exposure through gradual sales and take advantage of corporate actions (such as Atacocha, Alicorp and UNACEM who launched their shares repurchase programs).”
With which, this process would translate into gradual sales of local shares, with the aim of returning to the original composition of its portfolios and mitigate unbalances, which would result in a drop in the prices of the shares and the profitability of the Lima Stock Exchange.
“It is key to monitor which companies present the highest level of exposure to AFP. According to the last publication of the SBS (April 2025), the actions with the highest concentration are MINSUR1 (more than 50%of its capital in the hands of AFP), followed by Aenzac1 (44%), Ferreyc1 (43%), Volcabc1 (39%) and ENGIEC1 (29%), among the most relevant, among the most relevant, among the most relevant. indicated rent4.
“The local bag will probably continue to face low negotiation levels,” he added.
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