In June, Mexico received 5.201 million dollars in remittances, which meant a 16% drop compared to June 2024. According to Gerónimo Ugarte, a chief economist of Valmex, the fall is mainly due to a slowdown in the US economy and the weakness of its labor market.
“People who send remittances normally work in cyclical sectors, sectors that when the economy slows down also slows down,” he said in an interview.
In addition, a stronger exchange rate against the dollar harms the money that Mexicans receive. Valmex points out that in June a real deterioration of the available income of 16.1%is shown, almost equal to the fall of remittances in millions of dollars.
“We have an still positive, but very small exchange effect,” said Ugarte. “We have a negative inflationary effect and we have the fall in millions of dollars, so this automatically indicates a loss of purchasing power of households in Mexico.”
The specialist added that factors such as the mass deportations promoted by the Government of Donald Trump or the imposition of a remittance tax from the following year have a limited effect on shipments of money to Mexico.
“We see that it is limited and we believe that for June data there was already a process of adaptation to this new reality (in the United States),” he said.
For Banamex analysts, an adverse environment for migrant workers (such as deportations) and low expectation in job creation will be the main reasons in the loss of dynamism of these shipments.
“We estimate a 4% drop for all 2025,” said the bank. If this fall was completed, it would be the largest since 2009.
Sinaloa, CDMX and Nuevo León who lose the most
The data of Banco de México emphasize that despite the fact that 10 entities concentrate 66% of the remittances that arrive in Mexico (led by Guanajuato, Michoacán and Jalisco), in June Sinaloa and Mexico City were the entities where the sending of money fell the most.
In fact, 23 of the 32 entities had falls while Baja California received 16.8% more remittances than last year.
Sinaloa and Mexico City fell, each, 25.5% in the reception of these resources.
