Remittances —which grew 19.7% when comparing the first semester of 2021, with the same period of the previous year, to close June with an accumulated amount of 1030.2 million dollars— They are heading to exceed the annual barrier of 2000 million, according to official information compiled by the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
Data for July and August, which added another 351.4 million, confirm the trend.
Despite its high dependence on remittances, which, together with exports represent the two most stable sources of obtaining foreign exchange, Nicaragua receives less than a third of the 3,658.5 million dollars (11.84% of 2020 GDP) that Salvadorans sent to his country in the first semester of the year, or that the 3476.8 million dollars (14.59% of GDP 2020) that Hondurans sent.
The 1,030.2 million that Nicaragua received (8.16% of GDP 2020), represent almost one seventh of the 6,966.1 million (8.97% of GDP 2020) that Guatemala received in the same period, thanks to its citizens abroad.
However, even with the importance of sending these transfers that alleviate the economic situation of thousands of households throughout the country, “until now, Daniel Ortega has not said a single word, not even about the Nicaraguans who leave the country, nor of recognition of effort they make to send money to their families“, said to CONFIDENTIAL the economist Enrique Sáenz.
This silence is unjustifiable, especially considering that remittances are “the main support pillar of the economy of thousands; they mitigate unemployment and underemployment figures, feed international reserves, encourage consumption, and sustain the stability of Cordoba, “he added.
“If people did not leave, unemployment and underemployment would be greater, the malaise would be greater. With the lack of scruples that characterizes the dictatorship, they consider it positive, so much so that neither migrants nor remittances exist in their discourse, because it means recognizing the economic and social failure of the regime, and of its model. christian, socialist and solidary”, Stressed Sáenz.
Yes OK the number of people leaving Nicaragua bound for the United States, Costa Rica, Spain, Panama, Canada, El Salvador and Mexico, is much lower than the number of Haitians who leave their country, the sociologist Óscar René Vargas, points out that the calculation of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), is that between 2018 and 2020, some 108,000 people had left Nicaragua, heading into exile.
Another hundred thousand more
“This year it is estimated that it will end with a migratory wave 100,000 people, of which 60,000 would go to the United States, and 40,000 to Costa Rica and the rest of Central American countries, which shows that hthere is an increase in exile”, He reiterated.
“That exile – be it economic or political – also has a negative effect on the potential growth of the country. For example, when my son, who had a master’s degree in economics, left the country, the country lost. When a worker —whether from the formal or informal economy— leaves, the country loses the potential to develop “, and when the economy begins to recover, it will not have the human capital to do so, he emphasized.
“Although it is true that promoting exile may be a regime tactic, for the country it means the loss of its economic potential for recovery, due to having lost human capital in a violent way, because they did not leave little by little. Most of the people who leave for economic reasons have an educational level higher than the national average, ”he said.
Vargas ruled out that, since the Nicaraguan economy is so small, and there are so many people looking for work, letting this excess out helps to match the demand and supply of labor, because what stands out in the net balance is that it loses human capital, so that what will remain in the country are people without preparation to fill the jobs that require greater preparation.
Although a simple arithmetic calculation shows that, assuming that there were ten master’s degrees in the country, but the market only offers employment to six of them, and the remaining four leave the country, nothing was lost because the six remained. They needed them, and the other four went out to find a way to insert themselves in other economies. Vargas insisted that such an approach is a mistake, because “the country did not need ten or fifteen masters: it needed 100”.
“It is that the country, as a country, needed it. So the country lost. It is not that they gave him a job, or that they did not give him a job, but rather that the country spent money to train these people, and then that money is lost. The academic training of that person costs the national economy, even if it is the family that has supported him, ”he said.
