Regime admits that Cuban population falls to less than 10 million inhabitants

SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, Mexico.- This Friday, the Cuban government admitted that the migration crisis has considerably affected Cuban demographics, reaching a population of less than 10 million.

According to advertisement In the Cuban parliament, Juan Carlos Alfonso, first deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), said the “calculation” took into account the unprecedented migration crisis of the last three years, as well as deaths.

According to the data provided by the official, considering Cubans who emigrated but have maintained their residency, by spending part of the year on the island or by having requested an extension from abroad, the figure rises to just over 10.05 million Cubans until 2023 (10,055,968 people).

Furthermore, if we look at the contraction in the number of births and the continuity of the movement of people outwards since the last months of 2023, Cuba’s population is currently less than 10 million inhabitants.

This number represents a 10.1% drop compared to the number of residents in 2020 and is similar to what there was in Cuba in 1985, the official warned. The trend indicates that the population will continue to decline.

Cuba’s population in 2024 is much lower than the 11.1 million in 2021, according to the first figures offered since the census of that year.

Who emigrates?

Alfonso Fraga acknowledged that the population The population aged 15-59 is the one that emigrates the most. This group decreased “by more than 800,000 people, reaching 59.5%. Consequently, although they also decreased in absolute terms, proportionally their weight in the population structure is increased by those aged 0-14 (16.1%) and 60 years and older (24.4%).

According to official figures, there are just over 1.2 million Cubans “outside the country” since 2021 and 75% are no longer residents on the Island.

The largest decreases were recorded in Havana, Cienfuegos and Mayabeque; the smallest in Granma, Guantánamo and Santiago de Cuba, he said. “In general, the provinces and municipalities that are decreasing the most are those in the central-western region.”

The municipalities with the greatest decline are Plaza de la Revolución (+35% of the population aged 60 or over), Camagüey and Playa.

“Specifically, for 2023 and the estimated 10,055,968 inhabitants, there are 304,717 fewer women of childbearing age (15-49 years), of which more than 70% are in more reproductive ages (15-39 years),” he said.

This reality, he explained, will have an impact on the continued decline in the number of births recorded in recent years, which in 2024 should be below 80,000, the lowest figure since 1959.

This demographic situation, consequently, results in an aging economy, “characterized by the high cost, for society and the family, of attention and care for the growing elderly population, increasing the cost of social programs with emphasis on social security and assistance and a smaller base for the renewal of the labor resources of the country and its territories.”