If the referendum against 135 articles of the Urgent Consideration Law (LUC) is confirmed, 48% of the population would vote to keep them, 41% to repeal them and 11% do not know, according to a survey of Figure held at the beginning of November, which was released this Wednesday in Telemundo (channel 12).
In just two months, half of the undecided took a position on the LUC and most of them are in favor of repeal. But those who support the LUC are just two percentage points away from the votes needed to keep it.
Is so there is a decrease in the number of undecided: today it is one in 10. However, Where do those who were undecided turn? If you look at the historical evolution, four points are added to those who support the LUC and seven points to those who are against.
Since November 2020, the consultancy’s surveys registered very small variations throughout the months, and the difference between those who would vote to repeal and those who would vote to keep the articles of the LUC remained between a maximum of 12 points in February, and a minimum of eight points in April. Now the difference is reduced to seven points, even less than that of April.
In addition, voters’ positions regarding the LUC tend to increasingly align with those of their parties.
Historical evolution
Today eight out of 10 opposition voters would vote to repeal and the same number of ruling party voters would vote to keep.
Two months ago, two thirds of voters were aligned with their parties, which suggests that in recent weeks citizens have been listening more to their leaders and have chosen to follow them, indicates Cifra.
Among the less committed population, those who vote blank or do not say their vote, the majority today is inclined to repeal (47%) and less than a third to maintain, although there is still more than a fifth who do not know what they would vote for.
Ideology divides opinions about the LUC almost as much as party sympathy: more than eight in 10 of those who consider themselves to be on the left are against the LUC and three-quarters of those who consider themselves to be on the right are in favor. Among those who define themselves as a center, half are in favor of maintaining and a third in favor of repealing.
Survey
The consultation was made with 802 interviewees over 18 years of age, by telephone, between October 28 and November 7, 2021, nationwide.
The maximum margin of error expected for 95% confidence is approximately 3.1 percentage points plus or minus (+/- 3.1).
The question asked was the following: “If there is a referendum to repeal several articles of the LUC, will you vote to repeal those articles or to keep them?” Repeal / Keep / Don’t know.
The survey was multi-client, and financed by public and private companies, political parties, state agencies and international organizations, clarifies the consultancy.
