From the point of view of Banamex analysts, the implementation of the reduction to the working day in Mexico, as proposed in the reform initiative discussed by the Congress of the Union, threatens to generate adverse effects on the national economy, especially in GDP, inflation and in a rebound in informality.
The micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) will be the most affected by the increase in the labor costs that the reform will generate, and although support measures have been raised as tax incentives and credits with the development bank, the lack of clarity persists to implement these measures, Banamex warns in an economic report.
“Salaries would remain unchanged, which will increase the cost per hour worked for companies. In addition, the limit of overtime from 12 to 5 per week would be reduced, with payment from time 41, strengthening the incentives to meet the new day,” says the study signed by Arely Medina and Iván Arias, members of the Banamex Economic Studies Area.
However, Sales Boyoli, a member of the ANADE and expert in labor relations, considers that the impact will be more limited and part of an inevitable global trend.
What does the reform propose?
The current Federal Labor Law (LFT) establishes a maximum day of 48 hours per week, distributed in six days with a mandatory rest day, although in practice, more than 25% of the employed population works more than 48 hours a week.
The initiative that is in the hands of Congress proposes to reduce the day to 40 hours per week, through 5 -hour schemes, with 2 days of mandatory rest, preferably Saturday and Sunday.
Salaries would remain unchanged, which will increase the cost per hour worked for companies, experts maintain.
Expected macroeconomic effects
According to Banamex’s analysis, the biggest challenge is faced by micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which generate 65% of employment and 40% of GDP. The reduction without salary adjustment will increase the cost per hour worked 20%, and can generate:
– A GDP FALL between 0.3 and 1 percentage point.
– An increase in inflation between 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points.
– Loss of formal jobs and an eventual transfer to informality.
Although the initiative contemplates subsidies, these still lack clear design. Fiscal incentives, soft credits and digitalization programs have been raised, but the doubt about its effectiveness persists, especially in informal sectors such as trade and construction.
An “inevitable tendency”
For Boyoli salts, the concern for a jump in informality is disproportionate. “Already more than 53% of small and medium employers are in informality. The reform will not be decisive in their growth,” says the expert in labor issues internationally.
In addition, it clarifies that many companies already operate under the so -called 40 -hour “English week”, so the impact will be more limited than Banamex suggests:
“Many companies already work under English week. Those are not going to suffer.”
From its perspective, the initiative aligns Mexico with international standards – like those of the OECD -, so that more than a risk, represents a pending modernization.
In May 2025, the OECD expressed its support for the reduction of working hours in Mexico to 40 hours per week and highlighted its benefits in health, well -being and productivity. During the forum for 40 hours, the representative of the agency in Mexico, Mario López Roldán, said that this measure is key to balance personal and work life, reduce inequalities and improve the quality of life.
He pointed out that Mexico has the greatest imbalance between work and private life in member countries, with one of the most extensive days. The OECD called not to postpone the reform and offered technical support for its implementation.
Entrepreneurs can negotiate the cost of extra hours
One of the critical points is the cost of extra hours, which in Mexico are one of the highest in the world (double and triple payment). The reform contemplates reducing the extra hours of 12 to only 5 per week, which will affect sectors with irregular schedules, such as manufacturing or hospitals.
Sales Boyoli suggests that this reform can be an opportunity to balance the system:
“The business sector would have to achieve a currency similar to what it achieved with the Topes to the PTU in outsourcing reform,” he says.
One possibility would be to reduce the legal cost of extra hours to more common schemes in other countries (simple payment or with minor surcharges), which would help compensate for the increase in labor costs.
What does international evidence say?
The OECD has recommended Mexico to move towards a 40 -hour day to improve well -being and labor productivity.
Although Mexico has not yet ratified agreement 47 or ILO recommendation 116 on day limits, the international trend is clear. This is evidenced with the following examples:
Chili: Gradual reduction of 45 to 40 hours between 2025 and 2028, with tax subsidies. Studies indicate improvements in well -being, although with pressure on employment and an estimated GDP drop from 0.2 to 0.4%.
France: The 35 -hour day increased the productivity per hour, but raised labor costs and affected the competitiveness of SMEs, which generated an initial inflationary impact.
Spain: Pilot projects of 32 hours showed improvements in concentration and personal-labor balance, although they are not yet generalized. Officially, the reduction of the day was approved to 37.5 hours per week in all sectors, but the vote is still missing so that this year enters into force.
Greece: Recently he returned to 48 -hour days and alleged productivity drop, which warns about the risks of advancing without a solid productivity strategy.
A shorter day, in the middle of demographic change
Sales Boyoli warns that the debate about 40 hours should not lose sight of the future aging of the population and the reduction of the birth rate. Mexico will have less and less young people of working age.
The demographic bonus ended. Mexico transitions to an old country. It is possible that in the future we should modify the day or import labor
Jorge Sales Boyoli, expert in labor relations.
This long -term perspective contrasts with the current government approach, which, according to the expert, promotes the reform with political capital rather than strategic vision.
The federal government set as a goal that the 40 -hour day is effective before January 2030, gradually. Forums with the different sectors were carried out, to gather the proposals and concerns of entrepreneurs and workers, and their full approval in Congress is still required.
With information from Alejandro Bazán
