Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist for more, stressed that, discounting this statistical effect, “the formal employment generation is practically stagnant Since mid -2024 ”, due to the increase in labor costs, given the increase to the minimum wage, vacation, contributions to retirement, among others, but without productivity improvements.
The 90 -day tariff truce between Mexico and the United States, points out both economists, barely postpone investment decisions and keeps sectors such as the automotive industry.
To these factors is added business uncertainty, both for internal reforms that alter the conditions to do business, and for the commercial policy of the United States.
According to Saldaña, this combination discourages new hiring and could aggravate informality if changes are approved such as the reduction of the working day, which would imply “more costs for patterns without an equivalent increase in productivity.”
Risks on inflation
In parallel, consumer inflation slowed for the third consecutive month, to 3.51% per year, its lower level since December 2020, thanks to the fall in agricultural and energy prices.
However, the underlying inflation, key to project the long -term trend, remained in 4.23% per year and, within it, the goods accelerated for eighth consecutive month, to 4.02%, crossing the threshold of 4% for the first time since February 2024.
Julio’s detail showed that non -food goods registered a minimum monthly inflation of 0.05%, but the food rose 0.43%, their greatest rise for an equal month since 2022.
This behavior worries, since the last time the goods exceeded 4% per year It took 47 months to return below that level.
The rebound in goods in merchandise responds to a mixture of factors statistical and structural. Among them, a low comparison base, the lagging effect of the depreciation of the weight at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, and the impact of tariffs on countries without free trade treaty, particularly China, which have increased some imports, even in electronic commerce. And he added that international price settings also play in the formula, explained the economist in chief of VE for more.
“When automotive or global companies raise prices in the United States for tariffs, they normally replicate it in Mexico,” to which the transfer of previous pressures in fresh foods towards food goods is added, said Saldaña.
Specialists warn that This apparent good streak is vulnerable. In employment, because the improvement is due to a methodological change and not to greater economic dynamism. And in inflation, because the deceleration comes from volatile components and not from the price core, which remains pressed by factors such as energy adjustments in autumn, exchange seasonality and possible impacts of US protectionism.
