Raúl Castro, when you are not …

Havana, Cuba. – A brief and substantial anonymous text published last Friday in Cubanet He wields interesting arguments with the aim of answering the very important question that serves as a title: “What will happen in Cuba when Raúl Castro dies?”.

The unknown author does not expressly mention that other facet of today’s Cuban reality, but journalistic work seems a reaction to the recent announcement made on social networks about the death of the veteran leader. I speak of the nth statement of that type that formulates an exiled compatriot, and that, in short, it shows not to possess any link with reality.

In fact, the author of this work does not usually pay too much attention to those supposed information that immediately turn out to be false. What I do confess to stay attentive is whether in the stations that are at the unconditional service of the Castrocommunist regime, at some point, they begin to transmit sacral music … that yes it would be – I think – a much more reliable indication.

Because what offers no doubt is that the character in question is left over for anyone, when that moment comes, he feels missed by such an outcome. In fact, what awakens amazement is the remarkable longevity of the Army General, and the good health that seems to accompany it (at least, judging by the little one sees during the sporadic public appearances he does).

Well, what will happen when that time comes that all living beings reach us sooner or earlier? What implications can that important event have for us, the simple Cubans on foot? I believe that the matter, because of its importance, deserves some considerations.

The rugged theme of change in Cuba has been addressed at more than one occasion by the author of these lines. The most recent example of this can be observed in these same pages of Cubanet. I am referring to a journalistic work of my authorship that saw the light on July 3. Your title?: “Let’s talk about the inevitable change in Cuba”.

My central thesis is that in Cuba does not have to happen something essentially different than in the more than 30 current countries that in one way or another have been fought of communist regimes. And the study of these dozens of change processes teaches us that, in the historical achievement of getting rid of the inefficient and retarding bureaucratic socialist system, it has corresponded an important role to those leaders of the single party who, arriving that moment of truth, understand the need to promote deep changes.

In that context, it seems appropriate to reproduce a prayer of that article of mine in Julio – “I clarify that (at least in what is concerned) it is not a matter of tastes or preferences” -; And also keep in mind the situation of our homeland today: “To describe the current situation of Cuba, I think it is essential to resort to adjectives as disastrous, catastrophic. And even these seem to fall short.”

It is in the midst of that total ruin situation that we must assess – I think – the perspectives that open before our island and the role that must correspond to the members of the Single Party in the titanic task of getting out of that catastrophic scenario.

In this regard, a passage from the Report Published on Thursday in this same newspaper by Camila Acosta on the trial of the intellectual José Gabriel Barrenechea and his fellow causes, which was concluded for sentence. A relative of the journalist and writer, referring to the sixth and last one of the witnesses of the Prosecutor’s Office, a “militant of the Communist Party,” said that, by declaring, “far from accusing, he ended up defending the defendants.”

The proverb teaches us that “a swallow does not make summer”, but I do not think it is correct to consider as an exotic exception the case of that reddish presented as a witness by the prosecutor … and that “ended up defending the defendants.” Such situations look more and more. If I quoted that in particular, I did it because it is very strong and because it consists in writing.

But it seems inevitable that the same militants of the single party, increasingly disagree with policies of the ruling party. It is natural that they do it, because they, for the most part, suffer from analogous difficulties suffered by the remaining foot citizens. Who remain oblivious to these harsh realities constitute a purely minority group: Mayimbes They enjoy privileges or mediate with their positions.

But even among the latter there is no lack of those who identify with the rows militants who are unhappy. Some will do it for the understandable eager to occupy the most raised charges; others, for fear of the effects of an uncontrolled popular explosion; others, guided perhaps by feelings of commiseration towards their compatriots plunged in misery and hopelessness. In any case, it is reasonable to expect the number of those who support a change, even in the exclusive central committee, grow.

Personally, I think that the militants of the single party who are convinced of the need to change the course in a radical way are already a large majority. Within the maximum organ of that political organization, superscoogido and elitista, it is natural that this same process marks more slowly, but the final result will be analogous.

And this is where the theme of the historical leader whose surprising longevity challenges the forecasts of many. I think that the downer of this Friday’s anonymous article puts his finger on the sore: “Raúl’s absence will leave the elite without his last historical leader.”

After the exequias of the Army General, there will be no one who, within the ranks of the ruling party, possesses an inconsible authority that allows him to go out to the passage of any lawyer of the change that arises, and also do so with the reasonable security of being able to abort the attempts that are made with that goal.

It is in that context that I would focus my answer to the question about what will happen in our homeland to the death of the general. Any step aimed at the essential change (which its single presence makes it impossible or difficult) will be facilitated when he is no longer going to pass.

This is how I answer the question that gives title to the journalistic work published in Cubanet Last Friday, and whose reading I recommend everyone.