Peru is 90 minutes away from securing a ticket to Group D of the World Cup Qatar 2022. In June, the Peruvian team will play the playoffs, and a victory would not only raise the spirits of the entire country, but also consumption.
When the red and white team qualified for Russia 2018, the Peruvian economy benefited by 0.5 points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to Claudia Sicoli, director of the UPC Economics program, this phenomenon could repeat itself.
“It is estimated that GDP can grow half a point or a little more. People are super excited about the team going to the World Cup. If they qualify, it will be something similar to what happened in Russia 2018″he indicated in dialogue with this newspaper.
Impact by sectors
Specifically, the demand for televisions, flights, personal loans, national team items and the consumption sector in bars and restaurants would be strongly favored.
According to Jorge Carrillo Acosta, an expert in finance at the Pacífico Business School, the sale of televisions would grow up to 50%, while the sector of tablets and high-end cell phones would rise by 25%.
In addition, the textile sector would grow 20%, the restaurant sector would advance 20%, and loan placements in the financial system would increase another 20%.
“Because of local customs, the matches are seen in restaurants, people gather in bars to celebrate. There will be a significant expense in what has to do with recreation and delivery “pointed out Sicoli, who estimated a total increase of 15% in consumption if we reach Qatar by 2022.
Inflation and pandemic
In the middle of Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, a pandemic occurred that hit the pockets of Peruvians hard. Many had to use their savings or pension funds to cope with the health emergency. In other words, Peruvians would arrive in Qatar in 2022 with much less money than four years ago.
“People have more important pocket problems than in 2018. But the optimism goes beyond the real situation you may have. There are people who get into debt in a very complicated way. Theoretically it is not reasonable, but the optimism and the desire for Peru to be in the World Cup exceed all economic reasonableness “Sicoli said.
“If the economy does not generate really sustainable growth bases, that euphoria and that optimism of the classification can generate a greater indebtedness in the medium term”he added.
The economist explained that if Peru’s qualification for the World Cup is confirmed in June, starting next year we would see some problems associated with purchasing decisions.
Despite this, the scenario is not so negative for 2023 because there are several factors that can mitigate the greater debt that Peruvians would assume next June. Among these variables are the prices of commodities, inflationary pressures from abroad or an eventual resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In any case, the expert recommended caution.
“It is important that people are happy. If you want to spend, let them do it, but thinking a little more realistically. Take off your shirt a little, and think a little more so that this boost in consumption is not oversized and does not generate a very harmful effect for next year or the end of the year”he pointed out.
