The World Cup Qatar 2022 It is about to start and soccer fans are counting the days until the inauguration of the biggest sporting event, not only because of the sporting aspect and all that it represents, but also because of the expectation of who could win the cup.
Along these lines, Credicorp Capital made projections about who would be the champion. “To obtain these projections and identify the relative strength of each team, we have used the Elo Rating methodology, which, based on history, estimates the thresholds that convert the odds of victory into results and goal difference,” explained Jorge Beingolea, Vice President of Portfolio Solutions at Credicorp Capital Asset Management.
Next, see the results of the estimates made by the financial holding.
Who would be the winner of Qatar 2022?
According to projections by Credicorp, the World Cup Champion team would be Brazil, which would play the final against Portugal. For its part, the third and fourth position would be defined between Argentina and France.
In addition, the countries that will go to the round of 16 will be: the Netherlands, the United States, Argentina, Denmark, Germany, Croatia, Brazil, Uruguay, England, Ecuador, France, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Portugal and Switzerland.
Finally, he estimated the Top 10 countries with a probability of being Qatar 2022 World Cup champion: Brazil (48%), Argentina (15%), Germany (7%), Portugal (6%), the Netherlands (5%), Uruguay ( 5%), Spain (5%), Belgium (3%), Croatia (2%) and England (2%).
What are the estimates based on?
Through the probability of victory based on the differences in ELO score of each team, the historical distribution of results in World Cup matches since Switzerland 1954 and considering the home advantage for the host team of the tournament.
In addition, Credicorp comments that information is collected on all the matches played by the senior teams until September 30, 2022, whether by friendly, tournament or international cup, World Cup qualifiers and past World Cups.
“The differences in ELO score above the opponent determine the probability of winning the match for each team, where the greater the difference in score, the greater the probability of obtaining a greater goal difference, and consequently emerging victorious from the match”, Add.
What would be the results of the matches?
According to the financial holding, this would be the results of the World Cup keys:
:quality(75)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcomercio/VCI5OTTQPFDD7HDXF5L4HDOT6U.png "Qatar 2022: Credicorp Capital projects who would win the World Cup")
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