Yesterday the offer of purchase of class A shares of Port Investments Chancay (IPchac1)that by regulation Transition Metals had to do after the purchase of the Volcan shares package to Glencore.
This public acquisition offer (OPA) was made with the minimum price that divided Stock Agent Sociedad estimated, after winning the good pro for this task. According to the Diviso Valuation Report, the minimum price of IPCHAC1 shares amounts to US $ 0.0657.
According to the results of this operation, Transition Metals was awarded just a total amount of US $ 2.64, that is, not three dollars, after it was able to buy only 44 shares at that minimum price.
If we start that the port of Chancay is an operation that has not yet begun to operate, so the so -called foundations for determining its value do not exist, why did the shareholders give up selling?
Major market price
For specialists, the operation did not occur because the buyer only offered to pay the minimum price of IPCHAC1 and this value is well below the currently quoted action in the market.
With January 16 of this year, the actions of IPCHAC1C1Carrarrarra at a price of S/2.30 in the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL), which at the accounting exchange rate published by the SBS is equivalent to US $ 0.86. In contrast, the minimum price offered to pay Metals Transition (US $ 0.0657) is only 7.68% of the market value. Even this minimum price is lower than the initial price with which IPCHAC1 entered to quote on the BVL, which was S/0.55 (US $ 0.15 at the exchange rate yesterday), according to the Superintendence of the Securities Market (SMV).
“The market price of the shares (IPCHAC1) exceeded the price established by the valuation entity for the OPA, therefore, no rational and informed being would sell at the price of the OPA if you can sell in the market at a higher price,” he said Alberto Arispe, general manager of Kallpa Securities Sab.
At the same conclusion, Jorge Ramos, General Manager of BBVA BOLA SAB. According to Ramos, the main reason for Transition Metals to buy was to comply with the regulation, rather than aspire to have a greater investment in IPCH, so it had no incentives to offer a higher price to the minimum.
Ramos added that in the current holders of the IPCH titles the same happened, because if they were interested in selling, they should do more in the bag in which the price is greater than that of the OPA.
“(The result of the ipcha1 OPA) means that the OPA prices that were defined by Diviso have not attracted anyone, because the bag prices are superior. It was very logical that few people were going to sell at OPA prices, ”said economist Ivan Alonso a Peru21.
Expectation
On the other hand, the fact that IPCH holders have not wanted to sell also means that the expectation they have about the value of these titles is greater.
“Obviously, the market considers that the price established by the valorizing entity does not reflect the fundamentals of the company (IPCH) and therefore, they have not taken that valuation into account,” said Arispe.
“That means that people have more favorable expectations about the price of the port than the price of the OPA implies,” adds Alonso.
However, Ramos said that care must be taken with the expectations of investors. First, it referred to the possibility that IPCHAC1 shares can be sold at a stock exchanged at a higher price, because the title is not necessarily marketed regularly in the stock market.
According to the latest BVL bulletin, the negotiation frequency of IPCHAC1 shares is 15%, that is, for every 100 wheels in the BVL, only in 15 quote the action. For example, this has not re -traded since January 16, hence it is considered illicious for its complexity to transf.
“With which, if the investor wanted to sell, he can’t do it either,” said Ramos.
To this it should be added that the action will not necessarily be quoted or is going to be sold at the current price in the market.
What follows
For Ramos, what follows for investors is to inform yourself about the true fundamental value of IPCHAC1 shares and if the current price has already incorporated the future of the port.
He indicated that the big problem in the case of this action is that by not having financial statements it is difficult to value it, therefore, they are negotiating below their maximum prices.
Ramos said that, for this reason, in BBVA Bag the actions of IPCHAC1 are classified within the speculative investment block.
“The recommendation for people is to be careful with these speculative investments. They should be informed to know if the price that is in the market justifies or not, ”he said after highlighting the importance of people demanding that information to their stock market agent society.
The economist Ivan Alonso suggested that the speculative term should not be seen with a negative connotation, since per se investments in the stock market or the prices of stock stocks are based on the belief of investors. He said that in the case of IPCh, speculative should be seen due to the fact that they have no history or registration as a company, while people’s expectation about their value is quite high and may or may not be right.
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