Driven interest and low volume of securities salaries, the Federal Public Debt (DPF) exceeded the first time the barrier of R $ 7.8 trillion. According to figures released on Monday (28) by the National Treasury, the DPF went from R $ 7.67 trillion in May to R $ 7.883 trillion last month, up 2.77%.
In June 2024, the indicator first surpassed the barrier of $ 7 trillion. Even with the discharge last month, the DPF is still below than expected. According to the Annual Financing Plan (PAF), presented in early February, the DPF stock should end 2025 between R $ 8.1 trillion and R $ 8.5 trillion.
Internal Securities (in titles) public debt (DPMFI) rose 2.99%, from R $ 7.361 trillion in May to R $ 7.581 trillion in June. Last month, the Treasury issued R $ 154.62 billion in more titles than it rescued, especially in fixed papers. In addition, internal debt rose because of the appropriation of R $ 65.13 billion in interest.
Through the appropriation of interest, the government recognizes, month by month, the correction of interest that led to the securities and incorporates the value into the public debt stock. With the Selic rate (basic interest rates of the economy) by 15% per year, interest appropriation pressures government indebtedness.
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Last month, the Treasury issued R $ 161.31 billion in DPMFI titles. With the low volume of title salaries in June, rescues totaled R $ 6.69 billion.
External Federal Public Debt (DPFE) fell 2.28%, from R $ 309.17 billion in May to R $ 302.12 billion in June. The main factor was the nearly 4.41% drop in the dollar last month.
Mattress
After a fall in May, the public debt mattress (financial reserve used in times of turbulence or strong concentration of maturities) rose again in June. This reserve went from R $ 861 billion in May to R $ 1.03 trillion last month, reaching the highest level since July 2024. The main reason, according to the National Treasury, was the strong net emission (less rescue emissions) last month.
Currently, the mattress covers 8.44 months of public debt salaries. In the next 12 months, the salary of R $ 1.236 trillion in federal titles is expected.
Composition
The composition of the DPF has changed little. The slice of securities corrected by price rates fell slightly from 26.64% to 26.45%. PAF predicts that inflation bonds will end the year between 24% and 28%.
The participation of prefixed papers (with yield defined at the time of emission) rose slightly from 21.1% in May to 21.57% in June. The PAF predicts that the indicator will close 2025 between 19% and 23%.
Usually, prefixed papers indicate more predictability for public debt, because rates are defined in advance. However, in times of instability in the financial market, emissions fall because investors ask for very high interest rates, which would compromise the administration of government debt.
The proportion of Selic -linked papers oscillated from 48.25% in May to 48.16% in June. The PAF predicts that the indicator will close 2025 between 48% and 52%. This role is attracting the interest of buyers because of the recent Selic highs.
Composed of former internal debt securities corrected in dollars and foreign debt, the weight of public debt exchange dropped from 4.02% to 3.82%. Public debt linked to the exchange rate is within the limits established by PAF to the end of 2025, between 3% and 7%.
Term
The average DPF term fell from 4.20 to 4.14 years. The treasure only provides the estimate in years, not in months. This is the average interval in which the government leads to renew (refinance) public debt. Larger deadlines indicate more investor confidence in government’s ability to honor commitments.
Holders
Financial institutions continue as main holders of internal federal public debt, with 31.3% participation in stock. Pension funds with 23.1%and investment funds with 22.1%then appear on the list of debt holders.
Even with temporary relief in the foreign market, the participation of non -residents (foreigners) oscillated from 9.9% in May to 9.8% in June. In November last year, the percentage was 11.2% and had reached the highest level since May 2018, when the slice of foreigners in public debt was also at 11.2%. The other groups total 13.6% participation.
Through public debt, the government borrows money from investors to honor financial commitments. In return, it is committed to returning resources after a few years, with some correction, which can follow Selic, inflation, dollar or being prefixed (defined in advance).
