Influenced by the high level of interest, the Federal Public Debt (DPF) rose by 2024 and exceeded the mark of R $ 7.3 trillion. According to figures released on Tuesday (4) by the National Treasury, the DPF went from R $ 6.52 trillion by 2023 to R $ 7.316 trillion last year, up 12.2%.
In December alone, the DPF rose 1.55% from November, when it was $ 7.204 trillion.
Despite the discharge in 2024, the DPF is inside the expected band. According to the Annual Financing Plan (PAF), revised in September last year, the DPF stock should end 2024 between R $ 7 trillion and R $ 7.4 trillion.
Internal Securities (in titles) public debt (DPMFI) rose 11.13%, from R $ 6.269 trillion by 2023 to R $ 6.967 trillion in 2024. Last year, the Treasury issued R $ 24.82 billion in securities to More than rescued, especially in papers corrected by the Selic rate (basic interest rates). However, the main factor of variation was the appropriation of R $ 673.875 billion in interest.
Through the appropriation of interest, the government recognizes, month by month, the correction of interest that led to the securities and incorporates the value into the public debt stock. With Selic at 12.25% per year in December last year, interest appropriation pressures government indebtedness.
In 2024, the Treasury issued R $ 1.457 trillion in DPMFI securities, up 6.73% compared to 2023, and redeemed R $ 1.43 trillion. Most emissions (R $ 945.02 billion) occurred to meet the demand for securities corrected by Selic.
In the foreign market, the external Federal Public Debt (DPFE) rose 38.87%, from R $ 251.46 billion in 2023 to R $ 349.19 billion in 2024. The rise was pulled by the appreciation of the dollar, which rose 27 , 3% last year. The dollar began firing in June, influenced by the delay at the beginning of interest in the United States, the elections in the country and the turmoil caused after the announcement of the proposal to increase the income tax exemption range.
Mattress
In 2024, the Public Debt Mattress (Financial Reserve used in times of turbulence or strong concentration of salaries) fell. This reserve went from R $ 982.37 billion last year to R $ 860.15 billion at the end of last year.
Currently, the mattress covers 6.24 months of public debt salaries, the lowest level since February 2016. In the next 12 months, the salary of about R $ 1.25 trillion of the DPF is expected.
Composition
Because of the demand for securities linked to Selic, the proportion of papers corrected by basic interest rates rose from 39.66% in 2023 to 46.29% in 2024. The 2024 PAF revised in September predicted that the indicator would close 2024 between 44% and 47%, against a previous estimate of 40%to 44%. This type of paper attracts the interest of buyers because at the high level of the Selic rate. The percentage may rise even more in the coming months because of the perspective of discharge in the basic interest of the economy.
Without a large volume of salaries, the proportion of prefixed securities (with yield defined at the time of emission) fell from 26.53% in 2023 to 21.99% in 2024. The latest version of PAF predicted that the indicator would close 2024 Between 22% and 26%, against a previous goal of 24% to 28%.
Earlier this year, the Treasury had again launched more prefixed roles. However, the return of market instability has compromised emissions, because these securities have lower demand at a time of economic and high interest instability.
The slice of titles corrected by DPF inflation also fell from 29.76% to 26.96%. Revised PAF predicted that inflation -linked securities would end the year between 25% and 29%, while the previous goal was between 27% and 31%.
Composed of former internal debt securities corrected in dollars and foreign debt, the weight of public debt exchange rose from 4.05% to 4.76%, mainly motivated by the correction of interest on foreign debt. Public debt linked to exchange is within the limits established by PAF to the end of 2024, between 3% and 7%.
Term
The average DPF term rose slightly from 3.95 to 4.05 years. The treasure only provides the estimate in years, not in months. This is the average interval in which the government leads to renew (refinance) public debt. Larger deadlines indicate more investor confidence in government’s ability to honor commitments.
Holders
Financial institutions followed in 2024 as main holders of the internal federal public debt, with 29.5% participation in stock. Pension funds, 23.9%, and investment funds, with 21.7%, then appear on the list of debt holders.
Even with turmoil in the global financial market, the participation of non -residents (foreigners) rose from 9.5% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024. Other groups total 14.8% stake.
Through public debt, the government borrows money from investors to honor financial commitments. In return, it is committed to returning resources after a few years, with some correction, which can follow Selic, inflation, dollar or be prefixed (defined in advance).
