In January, all business expectations registered a fall, according to the latest survey of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR). The results also reveal that only four of the 18 indicators are in the optimistic range (above 50 points), and one is in a neutral position (50 points).
Thus, for example, the 12-month expectation for the economy went from 54 points in December last year to 47 points in January 2023.
Regarding the “demand for their products at three months”, a decline was observed, going from 49 to 45 points in the analysis period.
Likewise, the survey revealed a drop of four points (from 50 to 46) in the indicator about the “current business situation”.
The former Minister of Economy, Carlos Oliva, explained to this newspaper that the drop in January is a consequence of the protests and roadblocks that had their maximum magnitude in said month.
“The political issue, the claims, the demonstrations, the marches, that environment generates this uncertainty. What has happened then is attributable to the political issue rather than to State management ”, he pointed out.
In this sense, he stated that as long as the political and social crisis continues, expectations would continue to fall, or at least they would remain below the optimistic range.
Added to this, Carlos Oliva specified, is the uncertainty over possible new general elections in the country. All of this could have a negative impact on private investment this year.
INFLATION AND GDP
According to the BCR survey, expectations about inflation in 2023 increased. Economic analysts increased their projection from 4.1% to 4.8%, while the financial system raised it from 4.5% to 4.7%. Non-financial companies, for their part, modified the result from 4.5% to 5%.
In all three cases, what is expected is far from the Central Bank’s target range (between 1% and 3%).
DATA
According to information from the BCR, economic analysts estimate that GDP in 2023 will grow only 2.1%. In December they projected an advance of 2.5%.
The financial system does maintain its economic projection of 2.5% for this year.
