In advance of the inflation data that will be known next week, the Dane revealed this Friday – October 4 – the most recent data of the Producer Price Index for the month of September, which will be vital to determine what could happen to the cost of living in Colombia during the ninth month of the year.
According to the National Administrative Department of Statistics, on this occasion the PPI of national production presented an annual variation of 0.70% compared to September 2023, which marks a slight contraction compared to August, but maintains pressure points on consumer prices; mainly from food and fuel.
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Thus, the first thing that should be highlighted is that the industry displaced in this opportunity to agriculture in the contributions of the increase in producer prices after showing an annual variation of 2.89% and contributing 1.83 percentage points. At this point, it was fuel (78.21%), ground coffee (71.84%), and fresh or refrigerated meat (26.62%), which had the highest variations.
Meanwhile, in the case of agriculture, livestock and fishing; Although there was a much greater annual variation of 7.83%, its contribution was barely 1.5 percentage points, highlighting here the subclasses of fruits (72.44%), potatoes (100.84%), coffee ( 68.74%) and mushrooms and truffles (5.45%); the largest pressure generators.
Industry
Courtesy
Although the first two lines of the Producer Price Index showed strong increases, its influence was again offset by the mining sector, which posted a negative variation of 14.99% in September and with this subtracted 2.63 percentage points. to the Dane accounts. However, it should be noted here that subclasses such as petroleum oils and other minerals (76.21%) and coal, unagglomerated (142.97%); recorded strong rebounds.
On the other hand, in the review of the monthly behavior, Dane pointed out that “the PPI of national production, in September 2024, presented a variation of 1.04% compared to August 2024”, also driven on this front by the activities primaries.
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“In September 2024, the only sector that registered a higher variation The average was Agriculture, livestock, forestry, hunting and fishing with 3.29%. The Manufacturing Industries (0.97%) and Mining and Quarrying (-1.65%) sectors presented variations below the average (1.04%)1,” says the report.
Inflation.
EFE
How will inflation end?
Recent inflation projections, which were released this week, show that despite the pressures from food and fuel, market expectations point towards a sustained moderation of the CPI, which will not reach the desired levels until beginning of 2026 if nothing changes.
Thus, it must be said that for now the projections are between 5.4% and 5.8% for this year; while in 2025 it would drop to ranges between 3.8% and 4%. At this point, if it is taken into account that the goal of the monetary authorities and the Government is below 3.5%; It is appreciated that it will not be achieved in the terms to come; Therefore, it is necessary to keep the alerts on on the subject.
