Private analysts estimated that the consumer price index registered an increase of 5.6% in January, after the 5.1% rise registered last December, according to the results of the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) prepared by the Bank Center (BCRA).
The variations expected for the following months imply an average inflation during the first semester of around 5.7%, which represents a decrease of 0.2 percentage points (pp) with respect to the December survey.
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) will report on Tuesday, February 14, the evolution of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January.
According to the same survey, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected for 2023 of 0.5%, the same result as the one made in December, and 1% for 2024.
The data published this Friday by the Central Bank correspond to the survey carried out between January 27 and 31, which had 40 participants, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 14 financial entities from Argentina.
In the first survey of the year, analysts estimated inflation for the entire year at 97.6% year-on-year (yoy), which represented a drop of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous forecast.
On the other hand, they estimated a growth of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 of 0.5%, the same result as that made in December, and of 1% for 2024.
The analysts of the financial market also estimated that during this month the Bablar rate of private banks will be located at 69.39%, slightly lower than the average rate of 69.47% registered during January.
The unemployment rate was projected at 7.8% for the fourth quarter of 2023 (0.3 pp more than the previous REM) and 7.8% by the end of 2024 (0.2 pp more than the previous one).
Regarding the wholesale nominal exchange rate ($/US$), the monthly average for business days was $182.24 per dollar during January.
The forecast of those who responded to the REM indicated a monthly increase of $10.05 (+5.5% monthly) per dollar to $192.30 in February.
Analysts also estimated an open unemployment rate of 7.8% for the fourth quarter of 2023 (0.3 pp more than the previous REM) and 7.8% by the end of 2024 (0.2 pp more than the previous ).
Until the third quarter of last year, the latest data published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), unemployment reached 7.1%.
