The forecast of the central government’s primary deficit by 2025 decreased from R $ 72.10 billion in July to R $ 69.99 billion in Septemberaccording to the median of Fiscal Prism, released this Thursday (11) in the Macrophiscal Bulletin of the Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance.
With that, the projection reached the smallest level since January 2024being above the lower limit of the target of primary result after exclusion of the precatory.
According to SPE, the fall can be explained by improving expectations for federal collection, as well as for net revenue. After the new estimates, the Primary result designed for 2025 is a deficit of R $ 26.3 billion, excluding the payment of precatory in the amount of R $ 48.6 billion.
The primary result represents the difference between revenues and spending, disregarding the payment of public debt interest. This year’s Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO) and the new tax framework sets zero primary deficit target, with a tolerance margin of 0.25 percentage point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) up or down to the central government.
At the lower limit of the goal, this is equivalent to the deficit of up to R $ 31 billion. With the result disclosed in the newsletter, there is a place of R $ 4.7 billion to comply with the lower limit of the goal, “it is not necessary to resort to new contingencies,” says the document.
According to SPE, market institutions are still projecting compliance with the fiscal target by 2025. The median of market projections for primary deficit for this year is currently above the lower limit of the primary result target providing for a compensation, with compensation of R $ 21.36 billion.
Furthermore, Predictions for the collection of federal revenues by 2025 increased by R $ 2.87 trillion, in July, to R $ 2.88 trillion, in September.
In the same way, Estimates for central government net revenue rose from R $ 2.31 trillion in July to R $ 2.32 trillion in September.
On the other hand, the behavior of Total central government expense remained constant at R $ 2.39 trillionsince June 2025.
As a result, institutions project a reduction in the primary deficit to 2026, as well as less indebtedness.
In July 2025, a deficit of R $ 89.37 billion was estimated, while in September 2025, projections were reduced to a deficit of R $ 81.82 billion, a decrease of R $ 7.55 billion.
Expectations for Gross Government Gross Debt (DBGG) in 2025 also have a fall trajectory. In September, the projection foreseen a 79.74% DBGG of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to the previous level of 80%.
For 2026, the estimate went from 84.10% to 83.80% of GDP, a reduction of 0.30 percentage point (PP).
